Fear of a Hot Planet
by John Feffer
An extreme weather event hits Norway. Finally shocked into doing
something radical about climate change, Norwegian citizens propel the
Green Party into government, where it declares an immediate suspension
of oil and gas production. The new prime minister promises to provide
Europe instead with electricity from the next generation of “clean”
nuclear power.
The European Union, heavily dependent on Norwegian hydrocarbons,
isn’t happy. At the behest of Brussels, Russian commandos kidnap the
Green prime minister and force him to restart the flow of oil and gas.
To ensure compliance, the Russians become a shadow occupation force. The
prime minister is desperate to avoid bloodshed and so tries to
accommodate his new “partners.” Most Norwegians don’t see much change in
their everyday lives. Some citizens, however, prepare to fight back.
This is the plot of
Occupy, a Norwegian TV drama now
available for streaming on Netflix. Some of the plot is all too
plausible. For instance, Europe is indeed dependent on Norwegian energy.
Norway is the
second largest supplier of oil to the EU (at 12 percent) and the
second largest supplier
of natural gas (at 30 percent), in both cases after Russia. It’s not
inconceivable that an extreme weather event could hit Norway. Major
hurricanes
routinely hit the country.
And perhaps the Norwegian Greens could some day take over the
government, even though the party only has one seat in parliament after
achieving a little less than 3 percent in the 2013 elections. Even
without the Greens taking over, Norwegian politicians across the
political spectrum take climate change very seriously. Just last month,
the Norwegian parliament
overwhelmingly passed
legislation that will force the country to meet stringent carbon
emission caps. Only the right-wing, anti-immigrant Progress Party — now,
admittedly, the third largest party in the country — challenges the
scientific consensus that humans are behind global warming.
Other elements of
Occupy are perhaps less plausible. Norway is
indeed researching new, presumably safer nuclear power plants,
but these alternatives might never prove viable. Meanwhile, it’s hard
to imagine Russia and the EU teaming up to do anything — not even a game
of mixed doubles, much less a soft invasion of a Scandinavian country.
Presumably, Russia would welcome a Norwegian oil and gas stoppage, which
would give Moscow more access to European markets and more leverage
over Brussels.
And taking over Crimea is one thing — Finlandizing Norway quite
another. Russia has historically had good relations with Norway, going
back to the Soviet expulsion of the Nazis in World War II. The operation
of Russian troops outside the “near abroad” of former Soviet lands with
significant Russian-speaking populations is not in the cards.
Still,
Occupy is a gripping drama, and an important reminder
of the life-and-death stakes involved in petropolitics. Governments
should indeed be embarking on radical efforts to cut back on carbon
emissions, to which there will be considerable pushback. In the end,
however, I suspect we’ll see a different kind of “occupation.”
Before I sketch out that scenario, let’s take a closer look at the
Paris accord on climate change, signed last week at the UN on Earth Day,
and its likely impact.
http://lobelog.com/fear-of-a-hot-planet/#more-33997
