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Saturday, June 30, 2012

Reasons to Fear the Next Half of 2012

Reasons to Fear the Next Half of 2012
http://www.darkgovernment.com/news/reasons-to-fear-the-next-half-of-2012/

What is the second half of 2012 going to bring?  Are things going to get even
worse than they are right now?  Unfortunately, that appears more likely with
each passing day.  I will admit that I am extremely concerned about the second
half of 2012.  Historically, a financial crisis is much more likely to begin in
the fall than during any other season of the year.  Just think about it.  The
stock market crash of 1929 happened in the fall.  “Black Monday” happened
on October 19th, 1987.  The financial crisis of 2008 started in the fall.
There just seems to be something about the fall that brings out the worst in the
financial markets.  But of course there is not a stock market crash every
year.  So are there specific reasons why we should be extremely concerned about
what is coming this year?  Yes, there are.  The ingredients for a “perfect
storm” are slowly coming together, and in the months ahead we could very well
see the next wave of the economic collapse strike.  Sadly, we have never even
come close to recovering from the last recession, and this next crisis might end
up being even more painful than the last one.

United Technologies Acknowledges Coverup Of Sale Of Military Software To China -- Washington Post

United Technologies Acknowledges Coverup Of Sale Of Military Software To China -- Washington Post

United Technologies, a major defense contractor, and two of its subsidiaries on Thursday acknowledged covering up the illicit sale of sensitive military software to China — technology that the country later used to develop its first attack helicopter.

Federal prosecutors announced criminal charges against the firms and a fine of more than $75 million for what they called a violation of U.S. export laws. Justice officials said the software sold to China posed a risk to American troops overseas and U.S. allies.

Read more
....

More News On United Technologies Acknowledging A Coverup In the Sale Of Military Software To China

Military Contractors Are Fined Over Aid to China -- New York Times
United Technologies sent military copter tech to China -- Reuters
US firm fined for selling China military helicopter software -- MSNBC/Reuters
United Technologies sold China software for attack copter -- USA Today
UTC exported software used in Chinese helicopter -- FOX News/AP
United Technologies sold military software to China: US -- AFP
U.S. firm, subsidiaries admit role in sending military software to China -- CNN
US, Canada sold military copter tech to China -- Montreal Gazette

Three More Governance Questions For The New York Fed

Three More Governance Questions For The New York Fed

By Simon Johnson.  This is a long post, about 2500 words.

The Weekly Wrap -- June 29, 2012 (Part I)

The Weekly Wrap -- June 29, 2012 (Part I)

It Really Doesn't Matter If We Stop Buying Middle Eastern Oil

It Really Doesn't Matter If We Stop Buying Middle Eastern Oil

By Jordan WeissmannJordan Weissmann is an associate editor at The Atlantic. He has written for a number of publications, including The Washington Post and The National Law Journal.

Jun 27 2012 Saying we could be oil independent is just a nice way of saying we'll still be oil dependent.

TSA Makes "No Frisk" Exception for Beyonce

TSA Makes "No Frisk" Exception for Beyonce
http://www.darkgovernment.com/news/tsa-makes-no-frisk-exception-for-beyonce/

Should the TSA make a no frisk exception for Beyonce or any other person of
notoriety?
Of course they should, why not raise the walls between the haves and have-nots
as high as possible, why not increase the disdain that the people already have
for the TSA and their conduct, sure that's a great idea.
Of course [...]

Why the U.S. Military Lies about Domestic Drone Operations

Why the U.S. Military Lies about Domestic Drone Operations
http://www.darkgovernment.com/news/why-the-u-s-military-lies-about-domestic-drone-operations/

An April 2012 list of potential basing locations for DoD drone activities inside
the U.S. includes Portland, Oregon as a proposed site controlled by U.S. Special
Operations Command. A spokesman for USSOCOM told the Willamette Week last week
that it "does not have nor will it have" a drone base in Portland.

OBAMA CARE: Buy Health Insurance or Else

OBAMA CARE: Buy Health Insurance or Else
http://www.darkgovernment.com/news/obama-care-buy-health-insurance-or-else/

In a victory for President Obama, and a travesty for the Middle Class, the
Supreme Court upheld Obama’s health care mandate empowers the IRS to begin to
audit Americans’ health care by 2014. Obamacare represents the largest set of
tax law changes in more than 20 years, with more than 40 provisions that amend
the [...]

Friday, June 29, 2012

age Deadwood - By Rajiv Chandrasekaran

favicon foreignpolicy.com Original Page

Deadwood - By Rajiv Chandrasekaran

Forget the best and brightest. Why did America send its worst and dullest to Afghanistan? An exclusive excerpt from the new book Little America: The War Within the War for Afghanistan.

  • by RAJIV CHANDRASEKARAN

Pennenergy Update: This Week's Most Popular Oil & Gas News

Forward to Friend This Week's Most Popular Oil & Gas News
Microbial EOR could spur oil production
Researchers track impact of Gulf oil spill on region's marshes
Market moving toward offshore oil storage
PennEnergy Q&A: Examining corporate negotiation
Research report calculates most valuable time to abandon oil field
Production starts at Iraq oil field
Sunoco Logistics Partners announces binding open season
Eni acquires offshore oil exploration blocks in Vietnam
Saudi Aramco and MIT collaborating
Excellent results for TAG Oil's Taranaki Basin operations
Total steps up oil exploration in Kenya
Billion dollar onshore E&C contract for Saipem
API group adopts pipeline safety principles
Petrobras announces May average oil and natural gas output

How Obama Lost Canada


How Obama Lost Canada

Botching Relations With the United States’ Biggest Trade Partner 
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137744/derek-h-burney-and-fen-osler-hampson/how-obama-lost-canada?cid=nlc-this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-062812-how_obama_lost_canada_2-062812

The New Obama Doctrine: A Six-Point Plan for Global War

Truthdig


The New Obama Doctrine: A Six-Point Plan for Global War

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_new_obama_doctrine_a_six-point_plan_for_global_war_20120614/

Posted on Jun 14, 2012

By Nick Turse, TomDispatch
This piece originally appeared at TomDispatch. Read Tom Engelhardt’s introduction here.

Glass-Steagall Return Would Boost Banks, FDIC’s Hoenig Says

Glass-Steagall Return Would Boost Banks, FDIC’s Hoenig Says

A revival of the Glass-Steagall Act, the Depression-era law that separated commercial and investment banking, is “absolutely necessary” to protect the U.S. financial system, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp board member Thomas Hoenig said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
Using Dodd-Frank Act powers to break up banks one-by-one is the wrong approach to removing the threat that risky trading could spark a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis, Hoenig said today on “The Hays Advantage” with Kathleen Hays.

Thomas Friedman’s New State of Grace Matt Taibbi (Aquifer)

Thomas Friedman’s New State of Grace Matt Taibbi (Aquifer)

Three More Governance Questions for the Fed Simon Johnson, New York Times

Three More Governance Questions for the Fed Simon Johnson, New York Times

U.S. exempts China, Singapore from Iran sanctions AFP

U.S. exempts China, Singapore from Iran sanctions AFP

London Whale Trade Explodes, Current Estimate of JP Morgan Losses as High as $9 Billion

London Whale Trade Explodes, Current Estimate of JP Morgan Losses as High as $9 Billion

Lauren Unger-Geoffroy on Egypt's New Leader

Lauren Unger-Geoffroy on Egypt's New Leader
"Dispatches From Cairo: New President, New Hope" -- As the days pass, Egyptians seem more and more relaxed, and there is an emerging hope that displays itself in voices less strident, faces less stressed, more smiling, despite the stifling heat. Perhaps the storms of the Arab Spring have finished and now will come the flowering.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/dispatches_from_cairo_with_new_presdident-elect_hope_springs_anew_20120628/

Robert Scheer on the Supreme Court's Health Care Decision

Robert Scheer on the Supreme Court's Health Care Decision
"Supreme Court Leaves Romney in the Cold" -- Mitt Romney and his advisers have not yet grasped that the health care decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts has changed the terms of the debate.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/supreme_court_leaves_romney_in_the_cold_20120628/

Thursday, June 28, 2012

22-minute interview: CA CAFR $600B ‘pension fund’ pays only $1B for pensions


22-minute interview: CA CAFR $600B ‘pension fund’ pays only $1B for pensions

Popout
Infowars Nightly News interviewed me for 22 minutes to discuss how states’ Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFR) reveal taxpayers have abundant assets already in government hands to pay for all public goods and services multiple times.
Summarized here, California has $600 billion in cash and investments, with all state government agencies combined having $8 trillion. These amounts translate into $50,000 per household retained by the state, and a staggering $650,000 per household combined total.
This is why CAFR data disclosure is one of three obvious game-changing solutions a critical mass of the 99% can command to reclaim economic success from the current capture of the 1%; the other two are monetary and credit reform.
This objective and independently verifiable data also communicates the need for Occupy victory for the 99% to recognize and end obvious malfeasance/crimes centering in money and war. This victory literally saves millions of lives, helps billions, and returns trillions of the 99%’s hard-earned money.
22-minute interview: CA CAFR $600B ‘pension fund’ pays only $1B for pensions was originally published on Washington's Blog

U.S. Sanctions Policy on a Collision Course against Iran; Increasing Tensions with China

U.S. Sanctions Policy on a Collision Course against Iran; Increasing Tensions with China

By Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, www.RaceForIran.com
 
, June 27th, 2012.

America’s policy on Iran-related secondary sanctions is on a collision course with itself as well as China. Secondary sanctions violate the United States’ obligations under the World Trade Organization and are, thus, illegal. (While a WTO signatory may decide, on national security grounds, to restrict its trade with another country, there is no legal basis for one state to impose sanctions against another over business that the second state conducts with a third country.) If Washington actually imposed secondary sanctions on another state for, say, buying Iranian oil and the sanctioned country took the United States to the WTO’s Dispute Resolution Mechanism, the United States would almost certainly lose the case.
Given this reality, the whole edifice of Iran-related secondary sanctions is in reality a house of cards. It rests on an assumption that no state will ever really challenge the legitimacy of America’s Iran-related extraterritorial sanctions—and this means that the United States cannot ever really impose them. Instead, successive U.S. administrations have used the threat of such sanctions to elicit modifications of other countries’ commercial relations with the Islamic Republic; when these administrations finally reach the limit of their capacity to leverage other countries’ decision-making regarding Iran, the United States backs off.
The Obama Administration is bringing this glaring contradiction increasingly to the fore, by supinely collaborating with the Congress to enact secondary sanctions into laws that give the executive branch less and less discretion over their actual application. This dynamic is now coming to a head in the Administration’s dealings with China.

William PFAFF-How to Save the Euro and its Users

William PFAFF-How to Save the Euro and its Users - Columns - News
 

www.williampfaff.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=577
22 hours ago – Paris, June 26, 2012 – More than two decades ago the Delors plan for European currency union was initially proposed. Some of us asked ...

No end in sight to squawking over impending defense sequestration

No end in sight to squawking over impending defense sequestration

By Winslow Wheeler - 06/26/12

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/234943-no-end-in-sight-to-squawking-over-impending-defense-sequestration

How to Defuse South China Sea Conflicts

Wall Street Journal
OPINION ASIA
June 26, 2012
How to Defuse South China Sea Conflicts
The Scarborough Shoal standoff holds lessons for the region's many other territorial disputes.
By M. TAYLOR FRAVEL
The standoff between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal, which has lasted for more than two months, may be winding down. On Monday, the Philippines announced that all boats had left the shoal's lagoon. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that "the overall situation in the waters around Huangyan Island is easing." As perhaps the longest such confrontation in the South China Sea in almost two decades, the standoff holds several lessons for similar disputes in these contested waters. 

 

  1. How to Defuse South China Sea Conflicts
     

    Wall Street Journal‎ -
    The Scarborough Shoal standoff holds lessons for the region's many other territorial disputes, writes M. Taylor Fravel in an op-ed in The Wall ...

Losing interest

National Law Journal
ALM Properties, Inc.


Losing interest

Since the Supreme Court's latest ruling guaranteeing habeas corpus rights to Guantánamo detainees, in 2008, it has refused to hear a single detainee case.

Erwin Chemerinsky


June 25, 2012

Losing interest - Law.com
 

www.law.com › NLJ HomeOpinion
2 days ago – The National Law Journal with DC News from Legal Times ... The U.S. Supreme Court apparently has lost interest in the difficult and important ...The U.S. Supreme Court apparently has lost interest in the difficult and important issues raised by the indefinite detention of prisoners at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. On June 11, the Supreme Court denied review in seven cases posing unresolved questions presented by Guantánamo detainees seeking redress. There remain in Guantánamo 169 prisoners, some who have been there for more than 10 years without a trial, and they are left with no apparent legal recourse.

The profitable occupation, and why it is never discussed

http://972mag.com/author/noams/

Wednesday, June 27 2012 | Noam Sheizaf
An understanding of the profitable side of the occupation – way more considerable than most people imagine – could force us to change our entire political thinking.
Ami Kaufman (on his +972 blog
) and Emily Hauser (Open Zion) discuss the debate regarding the financial burden the occupation puts on the Israeli economy. As Ami notes, this is something that goes hand in hand with the conversation on J14 (a.k.a the “social justice” protest). Terminating the occupation and the expensive settlement project, the saying goes, would benefit Israeli economy more than any other measure the protesters offer. As both Emily and Ami note, there is something cynical about this argument: The occupation should be opposed on moral grounds, regardless of how cost-effective it is for Israel. I agree wholeheartedly, and this is the response I usually give to those advocating “the economic argument” against the occupation. Yet I feel a need to address the assumption in Emily’s text (and to a lesser extent, in Ami’s) according to which the occupation represents only a burden on Israel and its economy, as I think it is a part of a larger misrepresentation of the essence of the current status quo.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

War Clouds over the Greater Middle East

  1. AFP
    1. War Clouds over the Greater Middle East
      Middle East Online‎ - 4 hours ago
      Six conflict-zones of the Greater Middle East are in danger of erupting into fresh violence. In all six, the United States and its allies seem unable ...
  2. ميدل ايست اونلاين::Middle East Online

    www.middle-east-online.com/english/
    War Clouds over the Greater Middle East. Just as he has lost control to Israel of U.S. foreign policy when it comes to Iran, so Obama has collapsed in front of the ...

Policing, Privacy and the Growing Market for UAVs

Defense Daily Webinar

When: July 10, 2012
Time: 11:00AM - 12:30PM ET

Register Today

NO TRAVEL REQUIRED & LISTEN IN WHEN AND WHERE YOU WANT!


Earlier this year, Congress passed and President Obama signed a new law instructing the Federal Aviation Administration to rewrite regulations and develop a blueprint to expand the 
use of unmanned aerial vehicles in the skies above the United States.

More recently, the FAA in May completed a revision of its regulations intended to ease and expedite the process for law enforcement certification for flying UAVs as part of a series of milestones under the new law. Ultimately, the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 calls on the FAA to fully integrate unmanned systems, including for commercial use, into the national airspace by Sept. 2015.

The law seeks to capitalize on the rapidly developing technology of unmanned systems following the value they demonstrated to the U.S. military in the fight against terrorism and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Department of Homeland Security has used UAVs to patrol borders to curtail illegal immigration. Police officers and firefighters have seen the benefit of UAVs to carry out their respective duties.

The legislation could also expand the use of UAVs in numerous other areas ranging from agriculture to infrastructure monitoring and possibly even aviation cargo, and could be a boost to UAV and defense industries at a time of declining budgets at the Pentagon.

The plan, however, does have its critics. In addition to cameras, UAVs can carry highly sophisticated infrared and imaging technology and wireless network detectors some say could infringe on privacy. Others have expressed public safety concerns and skepticism over whether the technology is sufficiently advanced to avoid mid-air collisions.

Defense Daily will host a webinar July 10, 2012 featuring a panel of professionals and experts from the UAV industry, law enforcement, government and advocacy groups. Defense Daily invites you to join the timely discussion that’s an opportunity to shape the debate about the new law and the viability of the widespread use of UAVs in American airspace.

Register Today

Hear from:
 


Benjamin Miller

UAS Program Manager
Mesa County Sheriff’s Office



Ben is a 12 year veteran of the Mesa County Sheriff’s Office (MCSO) and, among other duties, is the Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) Program Manager.  Two and a half years ago the concept of a UAS program for the MCSO began with Ben and he has been the driving force behind the integration of this program since its conception.  Ben has been very involved with the United States Department of Justice and its coordinating effort to assist the Federal Aviation Administration with regulation regarding the public use of UAS.  Ben has offered guidance to other departments across the country and continues his focus on the integration of UAS by not only his own department, but departments nationwide.  He now manages a team of 6 pilots and has flown numerous Public Safety related missions.  



Ben Gielow
Government Relations Manager and General Counsel
Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International



 

Ben Gielow serves as the primary government relations manager responsible for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI), the world’s largest non-profit trade association dedicated to the advancement of unmanned systems, with more than 7,000 members worldwide.  In this role, Ben works with Members of Congress, their staff, federal regulators, aviation stakeholders, and industry, to expedite the safe integration of UAS into the national airspace system.  Prior to joining AUVSI, Ben worked as legislative counsel for a senior member of the U.S. House of Representatives, serving as the primary advisor on all legislative issues involving transportation, defense, homeland security, judiciary, intelligence, foreign affairs, tax, trade, and agriculture.  While working in the House, Ben ran the Congressional General Aviation Caucus and the House Aerospace Caucus.  Ben also currently serves as the in-house general counsel for AUVSI. Ben got his undergraduate degree from Ohio University, and a law degree from Thomas M. Cooley Law School.  He’s licensed to practice law in Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Virginia.  



Jay Stanley

Senior Policy Analyst
Speech, Privacy and Technology Project
American Civil Liberties Union




 

Jay Stanley is Senior Policy Analyst with the American Civil Liberties Union’s Speech, Privacy and Technology Project, where he researches, writes and speaks about technology-related privacy and civil liberties issues and their future.  SPT works to protect and expand the rights of freedom of expression and privacy, actively promoting responsible technology uses that enhance our rights, while opposing invasive uses, such as unnecessary surveillance.
Stanley is Editor of the ACLU “Free Future” blog, and has authored and co-authored a variety of influential ACLU reports, including “Bigger Monster, Weaker Chains” (2002), an examination of the confluence of new technology and weakening privacy protections; “The Surveillance Industrial Complex” (2004), which traced the growing intersection between government surveillance and the private sector; “Protecting Privacy From Aerial Surveillance” (2011); as well as numerous other reports, white papers and fact sheets on such topics as network neutrality, scientific freedom, data mining, NSA spying, airline passenger security, video surveillance, face-recognition technology, and the need for new privacy oversight institutions.
Stanley frequently represents the ACLU in the media; he has appeared on CNN, NBC Nightly News, ABC World News Tonight, the Today Show, MSNBC, CNBC, Fox News, NPR, and many other broadcast outlets. He has been quoted in numerous newspapers including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, and USA Today.
Before joining the ACLU in 2001, Stanley was an analyst at the technology research firm Forrester, where he focused on Internet related policies, including online privacy, taxation, and antitrust issues, as well as researching political communication via the web. Stanley also served as the American politics editor of Facts on File’s World News Digest, where he covered Congress and presidential politics.
Stanley was co-chair of the 2009 Computers, Freedom and Privacy (CFP) conference in Washington DC.  He is a member of the International Advisory Board of London-based Privacy International.
Stanley is a graduate of Williams College and holds an M.A. in American History from the University of Virginia. 


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Our obsession with Iran obscures the bigger threat

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8c7bc24c-bc8f-11e1-a111-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1yuIIh9U4


June 25, 2012 7:26 pm

Our obsession with Iran obscures the bigger threat

Gideon RachmanBy Gideon Rachman

It is funny what people choose to worry about. The west is obsessed with stopping Iran getting nuclear weapons. By contrast, Pakistan’s nuclear programme is not much discussed. And yet, by any sensible measure, Pakistani nukes are much more worrying.

The problem with taxing foreign-earned income

The problem with taxing foreign-earned income

SUSTG Analysis | Dr. Saud Al-Ammari | 6.25.12

Eritrea is one of only two countries in the world that applies citizenship-based taxation in addition to residence-based taxation.  The other? The United States of America.
In fact, the US is the ONLY industrialized country in the world to impose citizenship-based taxation. The immediate result for American expatriates is a blizzard of confusing and complex filing and reporting requirements that have kept innumerable accounting firms in the black and thousands of Americans up all night.  Their constant (and unwelcome) traveling companions include IRS Form 2555, US Code section 911, cost of living adjustment tables, physical presence tests, housing expense formulas and, coming soon, Form 8938 (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act).
However, as Dr. Saud Al-Ammari notes in this pointed analysis, “Free Advice to My Schoolmate Barak Obama: Want to Grow Exports and Create More Jobs?  Don’t Tax Americans Abroad,” the larger issue is what this tax policy means for American exports and American jobs.

Iran Nuclear Standoff: What Israel Has Wrought

Iran Nuclear Standoff: What Israel Has Wrought

Israel's nukes beg to be balanced.

Regime-Changers’ Report Card

Regime-Changers’ Report Card

Divide et impera – a strategy employed by empires since ancient times, and perfected by the British – has been the leitmotif of American foreign policy in the Middle East since the Bush administration’s “Arab Awakening” in Iraq and the supposed success of the “surge.” I’ve written in this space about the playing of the [...]

Matt Taibbi and Yves Smith: How the Wall Street Mafia Holds America -- and the World -- Hostage

Matt Taibbi and Yves Smith: How the Wall Street Mafia Holds America -- and the World -- Hostage

Yves Smith and Matt Taibbi join Bill Moyers to discuss our criminal global financial system.

The Tragedy of Richard Holbrooke

The Tragedy of Richard Holbrooke
The mismatch between an old foreign-policy hand and a new president: An excerpt from James Mann’s The Obamians.
By James Mann  
Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012, at 6:45 AM ET
Inline image 1Obama shakes hands with Richard Holbrooke after his appointment as special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009
SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images.

Following is an excerpt from James Mann’s The Obamians, out today from Viking.

It seemed almost foreordained that Richard Holbrooke would have a difficult, unhappy stint in the Obama administration. He had the wrong history, personality, and operating style to fit in with the Obama inner circle, much as Holbrooke struggled in his own fashion to do so. He was of the wrong generation, serving at the wrong time.

Holbrooke was a living symbol of the foreign-policy establishment against which the Obama team had campaigned. He had been serving Democratic presidents since the 1960s. The Obamians saw themselves as insurgents; Holbrooke had always tied himself to power, to worldly, prosperous Democrats like Averell and Pamela Harriman, Clark Clifford and the Clintons.*
Holbrooke would almost certainly have been secretary of state if Hillary Clinton had won the presidency. He might also have landed that job if Al Gore had won in 2000 or if John Kerry had beaten George Bush in 2004. After Obama appointed Clinton as secretary, she hoped to name Holbrooke her deputy, but Obama gave that job to Jim Steinberg, who had been a leading candidate for national security adviser.

Instead, in 2009, eager to return to government, Holbrooke took the lesser job he was offered, as the president’s special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, or “Af-Pak,” as he soon called it. He found himself, for the third time in his career, working within but not quite at the top of a Democratic administration, obliged to serve under those who seemed to know less history (and fewer powerful people) than he did. He was working for a secretary of state whom he had tutored in foreign policy and for a president who had been seven years old in 1968, when Holbrooke began working for Harriman at the Paris peace talks on Vietnam.

The rationale for giving Holbrooke the “Af-Pak” job was that while his outsize personality might create problems in Washington, he was especially good at fixing specific, hands-on problems overseas. Together, the wars against the Taliban in Afghanistan and against al-Qaida in Pakistan were among the highest priorities for the new administration. The Af-Pak assignment was meant to be a follow-on to the work Holbrooke had done in the Balkans during the Clinton administration. There, Holbrooke had managed to push, shove, and cadge the leaders of Bosnia, Serbia, and Croatia into accepting the Dayton peace settlement. His aggressive operating style had served him well in dealing with Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic. a tough leader who needed to hear some blunt language and threats along with the standard diplomatic niceties.

The problem was that Hamid Karzai, the president of Afghanistan, did not stand in the same position as Milosevic in the 1990s. The Serbian leader was an adversary; Karzai was a shaky ally. Holbrooke could threaten Milosevic that if he balked, he might confront awesome American military power (and, indeed, the United States and its NATO allies eventually did bomb Belgrade). Holbrooke couldn’t similarly threaten Karzai with the bombing of Kabul. Ultimately, the Obama administration needed the help and cooperation of Karzai’s government. The applicable historical precedent for dealing with Karzai wasn’t Milosevic at all. Rather, the closer comparison was those leaders aligned with the United States in the Cold War who proved increasingly unpopular at home and obstreperous in dealing with Washington. Both Nguyen Van Thieu in South Vietnam and Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines fit this description well.

* * *

Holbrooke quickly ran into even more serious problems in Washington. In the fall of 2009, the underlying tension and mistrust between Holbrooke and the Obama White House boiled to the surface. The precipitating factor was a profile of Holbrooke in The New Yorker. Written by George Packer, the article was entitled “The Last Mission.” It told the story of Holbrooke’s career from his early days serving in the Vietnam War to his new job in the midst of the war in Afghanistan. There were reflections by Holbrooke on the lessons from Vietnam for Afghanistan, comparisons and contrasts between the two countries, and pictures of Holbrooke in both Vietnam and Afghanistan—all of them introduced by a glossy portrait photograph of Holbrooke, covering one and a third pages.

Denis McDonough, the deputy national security adviser, who rarely said or did anything without the president’s approval, summoned Holbrooke to the White House for a strained conversation. Holbrooke and McDonough were probably the two most press-conscious officials in the entire administration: Neither was modest about calling reporters to try to shape a story in advance or to complain about something after it appeared. But the similarities stopped there. Holbrooke called the press on matters involving himself or his own causes and issues; McDonough was a staff man who pushed, equally aggressively, on behalf of his boss Obama.

At their meeting, McDonough dressed down Holbrooke, pointing his finger for emphasis. He told Holbrooke that the president was unhappy about the magazine article, which had drawn attention to Holbrooke, not the administration, and portrayed Afghanistan in a way that centered on Holbrooke’s own story. The White House wanted to set the messages and images of the administration, and not have various individual actors send out a cacophony of ideas.

* * *

On Sunday, Dec. 5, 2010, Richard Holbrooke played tennis on Long Island with Bill Drozdiak, the president of the American Council on Germany, a former foreign correspondent who became friendly with Holbrooke when both were living in Europe. They played for about an hour. Drozdiak thought Holbrooke seemed unusually pale, pudgy and out of shape, as if he’d been working too hard.



Afterward, they sat and talked. Holbrooke said he was in despair over his role in the administration. He simply could not establish a relationship with Obama, Holbrooke said. The president seemed remote and cold-blooded, at least in Holbrooke’s presence. And, as if that weren’t enough, Holbrooke’s problem wasn’t just with Obama: Holbrooke thought many in the White House were against him, especially McDonough, who had been with Obama since the earliest stages of his 2008 campaign.

Still, Holbrooke hoped somehow to leverage his many connections into a wider role in the administration. He was an old friend of Tom Donilon, who had a few weeks earlier become Obama’s national security adviser. Maybe things will improve, Holbrooke told Drozdiak.

The following Friday, Holbrooke was at a meeting in Hillary Clinton’s State Department office when he suddenly became flushed and stricken with pain. He was taken to the State Department medical office, but collapsed and went by ambulance to George Washington University Hospital. He died there three days later of a ruptured aorta.

* * *

Holbrooke’s death represented, in many ways, a passing of the old guard in American foreign policy. He was the link to the Democratic Party of the Vietnam era. His ideas and career reflected the party’s prolonged ambivalence about what to say and do in the aftermath of that disaster.

In the 1970s, Holbrooke had been among the Democrats’ intellectual leaders in trying to define America’s role in the world after the elder statesmen from the Kennedy and Johnson administrations—the Rusks and McNamaras, Bundys and Rostows—had been discredited.

On the one hand, Holbrooke could sound passionately liberal as he attacked the Republicans during general elections and the periods when the Democrats were out of office. He embraced important causes such as stopping the spread of AIDS. He thought of Vietnam as a terrible mistake, one the United States should never repeat.

Yet within the Democratic Party and during Democratic primaries, Holbrooke was definitely not a man of the political left. He did not ally himself with antiwar movements or candidates, whether George McGovern in 1972 or Obama in 2008. A year after the end of the Vietnam War, he specifically denounced “the guilt-ridden anguish of the left.”

Instead, Holbrooke invariably placed himself close to the Democratic Party’s center of gravity, alongside established forces and elites rather than insurgent movements. To a considerable extent, this reflected his ambition and his fascination with power, his perpetual urge to be on the inside, his sense that those in antiwar movements or insurgencies didn’t know the way things really worked (and also didn’t know the right people, the ones on his long contact list).

Yet along with these personal factors, Holbrooke’s determined centrism reflected a set of underlying beliefs. He was not opposed to the use of force, especially not for humanitarian purposes in places like Bosnia and Kosovo. He did not believe America was inherently malign. He argued repeatedly that the United States should continue to play a powerful role in the world.

The great irony was that Barack Obama, the president with whom Holbrooke did not get along, eventually embraced many of these same centrist views himself. After he became president, Obama made clear through his actions that despite his opposition to the Iraq War, he was no pacifist. On the contrary, he was quite willing to wield military power (ground troops in Afghanistan, SEAL teams on killing missions in Pakistan) and technology (drones in country after country) on behalf of America’s interests and values. If Holbrooke was respectful of money, comfortable with financial power and the world of Wall Street, Obama was hardly a populist on economic issues himself.

In their beliefs, then, the two men turned out to be not too far apart. In their personalities, however, they were strikingly different. Holbrooke was aggressive, emotional, dramatic, persistent, preoccupied with the personal, and consumed with whatever was happening at that moment. Obama remained cool, restrained, impersonal, far less swept up in the news coverage of the day, more preoccupied with long-term strategy, more driven to challenge established political power.
* * *
The memorial service for Holbrooke, held at the Kennedy Center, was a Washington event like few others. This was in some ways surprising. By way of comparison, three months later Holbrooke’s former boss, Warren Christopher, died. During his Washington career, Christopher had held two jobs, secretary of state and deputy secretary, that Holbrooke, despite his aspirations, never reached. Christopher also ran the high-level negotiations that brought American hostages home from Iran in early 1981. Yet in the nation’s capital, Christopher’s death was a one-day story; no big memorial service commemorated his life. Holbrooke, by contrast, had the biggest, mostly highly attended Washington memorial service of any political or foreign-policy leader since the state funerals of Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford. Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari flew in from Pakistan for the ceremonies, along with other foreign-policy luminaries.

President Obama spoke in Holbrooke’s honor, and so did both Bill and Hillary Clinton. All of them praised Holbrooke, yet there was also a certain undertone to the proceedings, the legacy of his difficult time in the Obama administration. Holbrooke had been one of the stars of the Clinton administration; in the Obama administration, he was forced into the limited role of a character actor. To the Clintons and their associates, Holbrooke was Our Crowd; to the Obama administration he was Their Crowd.

Bill Clinton gave a speech that was typically effusive (“I loved the guy. … If you knew him, you had to love him”), but also pointed and obliquely political, with remarks that could have been aimed at Obama: Although Holbrooke had a few “rough edges,” the former president said, “I could never understand people who didn’t appreciate him.” (Left unsaid was that Bill Clinton himself had passed over Holbrooke for secretary of state at least twice in 1992 and 1996—three times, if one includes the time in 1994 that Clinton tried unsuccessfully to bring in Colin Powell as secretary of state.) Hillary Clinton, her face strikingly animated, both warm and sad, spoke of Holbrooke in personal terms, smiling at his foibles: “He’d walk into meetings to which he was not invited, act like he was meant to be there, and just start talking.” When he did something no one else would do, she said, she and her associates would just say, “That’s Richard being Richard.”

It was Obama who sought to put Holbrooke into a broader context, one that went beyond his personality. He depicted Holbrooke against the background of American foreign policy and the generational changes within it. “In many ways, he was the leading light of a generation of American diplomats who came of age in Vietnam,” said Obama. “It was a generation that came to know both the tragic limits and awesome possibilities of American power—born at a time of triumph in World War II; steeped in the painful lessons of Southeast Asia; participants in the struggle that led ultimately to freedom’s triumph during the Cold War.”

In the days afterward, some of Holbrooke’s friends and the Clinton crowd murmured privately that Obama had been off key, that he seemed too aloof in speaking about Holbrooke, that he had been graceful but a bit stinting with his praise. After a few more months, Holbrooke’s friends and family became more public in criticizing the Obama White House. He “was effectively gagged, unable to comment on what he saw as missteps of the Obama administration that he served,” wrote Nicholas Kristof.

Holbrooke had indeed been gagged, prevented from appearing on news shows or talking on the record to the news media—although had he been allowed to appear, he would almost certainly have publicly praised and defended the administration in which he served. From the perspective of the Obama White House, Holbrooke had been reined in because, merely by appearing regularly on the talk shows, he would have called attention to himself and assumed more power than the president and his aides were willing to hand over. They did not want Holbrooke to shape the stories that were written or told about the administration, the narratives that they wanted to control on their own. It turned out that the only drama in which Holbrooke had the lead role during the Obama administration was his own tragedy.

Holbrooke’s widow Kati Marton told the Kristof that Holbrooke had compared Afghanistan to Vietnam. “He thought that this could become Obama’s Vietnam,” she said. “Some of the conversations in the Situation Room reminded him of conversations in the Johnson White House. When he raised that, Obama didn’t want to hear it.”

He certainly didn’t.

Excerpted from The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power. Published by Viking. Copyright James Mann, 2012.

US economy: Declaration of interdependence

US economy: Declaration of interdependence The globalisation of America – now emerging as an election issue – has brought benefits and risks as the country becomes more integrated with the world
http://link.ft.com/r/OZMCDD/NJ4ML9/V1UB9K/EXU4HZ/DWCLQU/50/h?a1=2012&a2=6&a3=26

Renminbi to increase global trade role

Renminbi to increase global trade role A dollar shortage in Asia is threatening to restrict credit growth and is driving a push by Beijing aimed at promoting trade in renminbi
http://link.ft.com/r/G8OTZZ/7ATL7W/3O62UJ/2OY8S8/YBFI04/T3/h?a1=2012&a2=6&a3=26

Our obsession with Iran obscures the bigger threa

Our obsession with Iran obscures the bigger threat Pakistan supplied nuclear technology to North Korea, Libya and Iran itself. It poses more of a danger to the west than Tehran, writes Gideon Rachman
http://link.ft.com/r/G8OTZZ/7ATL7W/3O62UJ/2OY8S8/II7OJB/T3/h?a1=2012&a2=6&a3=26

America is no longer a land of opportunity

America is no longer a land of opportunity Markets are shaped by the rules of the game. Our system has written rules that benefit the rich at the expense of others, writes Joseph Stiglitz
http://link.ft.com/r/G8OTZZ/7ATL7W/3O62UJ/2OY8S8/R3I5TC/T3/h?a1=2012&a2=6&a3=26

Monday, June 25, 2012

Good News Before More Battles in Egypt

By Marina Ottaway
http://egyptelections.carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/25/good-news-before-more-battles-in-egypt

Cyprus requests eurozone bailout

Cyprus requests eurozone bailout Cyprus has become the latest eurozone country to seek a bailout amid mounting economic problems and fresh challenges for its banks after a credit rating agency downgrade.
Bowing to eurozone pressure, the government of President Demetris Christofias said it had asked for help, just days before a deadline to recapitalise one of the country’s largest banks.
Cyprus is seeking financial help from the European Financial Stability Facility or its successor, the European Stability Mechanism, a government statement said on Monday. “The purpose of the required assistance is to contain the risks to the Cypriot economy, notably those arising from the negative spillover effects through its financial sector, due to its large exposure in the Greek economy,” the government said.
http://link.ft.com/r/0QSDPP/HY2ONN/RNF1Y5/TUZ3N3/JEM8AL/FW/h?a1=2012&a2=6&a3=25

The Consequences Of The Unthinkable: Here Is What Happens When The Euro Breaks Up

The Consequences Of The Unthinkable: Here Is What Happens When The Euro Breaks Up

As the following image from Spiegel summarizes, three things will happen simultaneously when the unthinkable finally occurs: i) economic output plummets, ii) unemployment rate soars, and iii) consumer prices explode. Of course, this is nothing but merely deferred consequences for Europe partying for over a decade under an unsustainable regime that borrowed from the future (sound familiar?). And now the inevitable hangover. In other words: payback is a bitch.

Supreme Court issues split immigration decision



Supreme Court issues split immigration decision
The Supreme Court has issued a split verdict on Arizona’s controversial law targeting illegal immigrants, overturning three of the four key provisions, but holding up the clause allowing officials to stop and check documents.
The court upheld the clause that gives law enforcement officials the power to request documents from anyone they stop for another infraction and suspect of being in the country illegally.
In a 5-3 ruling, the court said that it was improper for the lower courts to enjoin the section that required police officers to check the legal status of anyone arrested for any crime before they can be released.
http://link.ft.com/r/R5WAEE/XHSIB2/LQER5V/L98EYD/C40U12/E4/h?a1=2012&a2=6&a3=25

Supreme Court strikes down bulk of Arizona immigration law

Supreme Court strikes down bulk of Arizona immigration law

The Supreme Court on Monday struck down most of Arizona's tough immigration law as an unlawful infringement on federal power, but it upheld the most important plank, which allows police to stop and question the immigration status of those they suspect are in the country illegally.

An Islamist democracy? by Kori Schake

An Islamist democracy?

It's official: The Muslim Brotherhood rules Egypt. After a tense several months in which the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces attempted several times to reassert control over the levers of power, Egypt's electoral council today announced that Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, has been elected president of Egypt.

On 'The Crisis of Zionism': Why you should read Peter Beinart by Stephen M. Walt

On 'The Crisis of Zionism': Why you should read Peter Beinart

I've finished reading Peter Beinart's The Crisis of Zionism last week, and I enthusiastically recommend it to all of you. It is an excellent and important book, which is not to say I agree with everything in it.

America's Economy Really Is Screwed Up, And The Problem Is Corruption

America's Economy Really Is Screwed Up, And The Problem Is Corruption

Over the past few days, Henry Blodget at Business Insider posted a number of graphs, here and here, which depict something about the US economy that everybody knows to some extent or another, but that most of us won't have let thoroughly sink in. For some because the consequences are too opaque, for others because they are too scary. But make no mistake: we can only continue to ignore or misinterpret them at our own peril. And even then it's terribly late in the game.
The essence of Blodget's argument is this:
"... over the past 30 years, we've generated about $1 of economic growth for every $3 we've borrowed."
So while real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth looks sort of strong over the past 6 decades:

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

Following the anti-government protests in Egypt, most analysts see the Muslim Brotherhood playing a larger role. But experts remain divided over whether the group will choose a path of moderation or extremism.

Issue Guide: Egypt's Tenuous Road to Democracy

In the wake of Egypt's tightly contested presidential election, this CFR Issue Guide provides expert analysis and essential background on the country's evolving political situation as the civilian leadership faces a growing power struggle with the military.

No Healthcare Ruling Today As SCOTUS Rejects Parts Of Arizona Immigration Law In Obama Defeat

No Healthcare Ruling Today As SCOTUS Rejects Parts Of Arizona Immigration Law In Obama Defeat

Those hoping for supreme court to overturn socialism today will have to wait a few more days:
  • HEALTH-CARE CASE ISN’T AMONG TODAY’S U.S. SUPREME COURT RULINGS
But SCOTUS did slap Obama in the face nonetheless:
  • ARIZONA ILLEGAL-IMMIGRATION LAW GETS MIXED TOP COURT DECISION
  • U.S. SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS KEY PART OF TOUGH ARIZONA IMMIGRATION LAW, IN DEFEAT FOR OBAMA - RTRS

Renminbi to increase global trade role

  1. Renminbi to increase global trade role
    Financial Times‎ -
    A few months ago, Fortescue Metals placed a $100m order in China for railway cars to transport iron ore from its Australian mines – except that ...

Simon Johnson: JP Morgan at Risk if Euro Breaks Up

Simon Johnson: JP Morgan at Risk if Euro Breaks Up

Michael J. Burry's Commencement Address at UCLA - Credibility Trap and the Predator State

Michael J. Burry's Commencement Address at UCLA - Credibility Trap and the Predator State

Our Muslim Brothers by Uri Avnery

Our Muslim Brothers

Everybody knows by now why we are stuck in Palestine. When God instructed Moses to plead with pharaoh to let his people go, Moses told him that he was unfit for the job because “I am slow of speech and of a slow tongue” (Exodus 4:10). Actually, in the Hebrew original, Moses told God that [...]

Regime-Changers’ Report Card

Regime-Changers’ Report Card

Divide et impera – a strategy employed by empires since ancient times, and perfected by the British – has been the leitmotif of American foreign policy in the Middle East since the Bush administration’s “Arab Awakening” in Iraq and the supposed success of the “surge.” I’ve written in this space about the playing of the [...]

Exclusive Interview: Joseph Stiglitz Sees Terrifying Future for America If We Don't Reverse Inequality

Exclusive Interview: Joseph Stiglitz Sees Terrifying Future for America If We Don't Reverse Inequality

What will life look like down the road if we don't reverse economic inequality? We must see through the myths of capitalism and build a mass movement if we are to save ourselves.

A Cruel and Unusual Record - The New York Times

A Cruel and Unusual Record - The New York Times

www.nytimes.com/.../americas-shameful-human-rights-record.html
11 hours ago – A Cruel and Unusual Record. By JIMMY CARTER ... violating at least 10 of the declaration's 30 articles, including the prohibition against “cruel, ...

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Bill Moyers With Matt Taibbi and Yves Smith on the Banks - The Psychopathy of Wall Street

Bill Moyers With Matt Taibbi and Yves Smith on the Banks - The Psychopathy of Wall Street

Three Key Reasons Housing Not Coming Back: Demographics, Student Debt, No Jobs

Three Key Reasons Housing Not Coming Back: Demographics, Student Debt, No Jobs

Consumers Not Ready to Borrow Again

Ben Bernanke is trying like mad to stimulate credit and lending but to no avail. It's an uphill battle because of demographics, student debt, and lack of jobs.

Citing falling debt-service needs, some economists think consumers may be ready to go on a borrowing spree. They are badly mistaken.

I agree with Jed Graham on Investor's Business Daily who says falling debt-service needs is an illusion. Graham makes the case in Consumer Credit Impaired By Under-45 Job, Debt Woes.
Nearly four years after a borrowing binge gave way to financial crisis, have households slashed enough debt to take on new credit and start spending again?

Yes, says a growing chorus of economists, with some evidence to back them up. The Federal Reserve's ratio of debt service payments to disposable income is at its lowest level since 1994.

But that traditional measure is a poor guide today, as credit-hungry adults under 45 bear the brunt of the jobs, housing and student loan crises.

Considering where more of the income is coming from (government supports), who's earning a bigger share of wages (baby boomers) and which type of debt has been on the rise (student loans), re-leveraging may be a long way off.