This project is an attempt to envision what the pathways animating Russia’s decline could look like; identify the forces, attitudes, and ideas driving them; and describe the possible contingencies that could emerge along the pathways to a range of possible alternative destinations. It seeks to reveal how potential downside scenarios might unfold, the dynamics that could power them, the critical uncertainties whose resolution might push scenarios in different directions, and the possible wildcards that might radically, rapidly, and unpredictably alter the shape and movement of the competitive landscape, as well as the motivations and strategies of different actors.
The project’s analyses and products will appear on this Jamestown Foundation website. The papers by Russian experts are the first such postings. We further envision compiling these materials in a single volume, as well as several smaller, focused analyses on particular aspects of Russia’s decline, with appropriate contextual analysis and synthetic assessment. The final volume will be published by The Jamestown Foundation.