All Change in the Russian-Western Strategic Climate
At the 52nd Munich Security Conference on February 12–14, Russian
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev delivered the speech Vladimir Putin would
have made had he cared to come to Munich this year. In fact, the
Russian president has not attended this annual gathering of political
leaders and security experts since 2007. Medvedev’s words were tough and
his analysis exceedingly bleak, but his main point was an offer to put
the glaring Russian-Western differences and bitter conflicts to one side
and focus on a common threat coming from extremism.
Putin had used the same approach when he addressed the UN General
Assembly in September 2015, right before he ordered the Russian Air
Force to start its bombing campaign in Syria. The response from the West
then, as now, was negative about the underlying premise and skeptical
of the offer itself. The current confrontation between the United States
and NATO, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, will run unabated;
within that continuing confrontation, however, a degree of cooperation
is possible.
This appears to be the new normal. Unlike in 2014 and 2015, Ukraine
has not been a main theme at the 2016 Munich Security Conference.
Nevertheless, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry made a point of
strongly condemning Russia’s policies and reassuring both Ukraine and
NATO’s Eastern allies of America’s unwavering support. NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg announced the alliance’s dual-track strategy
toward Russia: defense and dialogue. Ukrainian and Lithuanian leaders
were given the floor for vitriolic verbal attacks against Putin.
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