WPR Articles Monday, Oct. 5, 2015 - Friday, Oct. 9, 2015

Support for Opposition Surges as Poland Accepts More Refugees

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, Polish Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz said that “accepting migrants escaping to save their lives is our duty.” In an email interview, Piotr Kazmierkiewicz, an expert at the Institute of Public Affairs in Warsaw, discussed Poland’s migrant and refugee policy.

Tajikistan Unrest Could Put a Roadblock in China’s Big Silk Road Plans

By: Emanuele Scimia | Briefing

Recent armed clashes in Tajikistan have raised new questions about Central Asia’s stability, just as China is deepening its role in the region and tying it to major trade and investment initiatives. Beijing is reluctant to get tangled in a Central Asian security crisis, but is still pursuing its big plans.

Catalan Independence Unlikely Despite Separatist Parties’ Gains

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

The pro-independence alliance Junts Pel Si came in first place in regional elections in Catalonia last month, leading Catalan President Artur Mas to declare he has public backing for an independence referendum. Madrid will not allow that but is open to constitutional reform giving more power to Catalonia.

Nobel Peace Prize for Santos Could Help ‘Sell’ Colombia Peace Deal

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

In the final countdown to the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize, the buzz is growing around two Latin American men: Pope Francis and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. The prize could help Santos’ efforts to forge a peace deal with Marxist rebels that remains controversial at home.

Mexico’s Other Cartels: Tycoons That Dominate and Undermine Its Economy

By: Eduardo Arcos | Briefing

Mexico’s drug cartels get all the attention, but another network exerts significant power and does its own damage to the country: an economic cartel that enjoys market domination in major sectors of the economy. These tycoons show how Mexico’s growth is both highly deceptive and terribly exclusive.

More... Putin’s Eurasian Union Doomed to Irrelevance by China’s Silk Road By: Casey Michel | Briefing During his address to the U.N. General Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin cited plans to link the troubled Russian-backed Eurasian Economic Union with China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, an ambitious development initiative in Eurasia. The merger is a last-gasp effort at relevance for the union. Syria, Afghanistan and CAR Put U.N. Diplomacy Back in Spotlight By: Richard Gowan | Column While presidents and prime ministers addressed the United Nations General Assembly last week, three crises—in Syria, Afghanistan and the Central African Republic—escalated dramatically. Each of these crises has the potential to shake up politics at the U.N., but in very different ways. No Sign of U.S.-Iran Breakthrough at U.N. General Assembly By: Ellen Laipson | Column At last week’s U.N. General Assembly opening, the U.S. and Iranian leaders were positive but precise in discussing the Iran nuclear deal, even as their mutual accusations about which of them is the source of regional instability suggest that no conceptual breakthrough in relations is about to occur. Short Supply: Can Venezuela Survive Chavismo? By: Peter Wilson | Feature Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s PSUV party has polled poorly amid mounting economic woes, with the political opposition gaining steam in the run-up to the general elections in December. But some fear that, as popular discontent rises, Maduro could interfere with the elections to secure power. Unsung Hero: Popular Resistance Key to Defeating Burkina Faso Coup By: Ernest Harsch | Briefing After returning to office following a short-lived coup, Burkina Faso’s president, Michel Kafando, highlighted a key factor that received only limited media attention during the week-long crisis: the “national clamor” against the coup by Burkina Faso’s youth, civil society groups and trade unions. Battle for Kunduz Signals New Round of Unrest in Afghanistan By: Colin Cookman | Briefing The Taliban scored one of their biggest upsets in Afghanistan when they seized control of the northern city of Kunduz last week. The episode illustrates the depth of the insurgent threat facing the Afghan state, the challenges of mounting its defense—and the diminishing hopes for a cease-fire. Corruption in Colombia Could Derail FARC Peace Deal By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, the mayor of Colombia’s main port city, Buenaventura, was arrested on corruption charges. In an email interview, Elisabeth Ungar Bleier, the executive director of Transparencia Por Colombia, the Colombian chapter of Transparency International, discussed Colombia’s progress in the fight against corruption. Despite Kunduz Tragedy, U.S. Must Resist Impulse to Abandon Afghanistan By: Michael A. Cohen | Column In the wake of the U.S. bombing in Kunduz, there is a natural inclination to be critical of the entire U.S. military endeavor in Afghanistan, and even to want the U.S. to pull back from the fight there. But we should also ask whether such impulses are the best policy for the U.S. and Afghanistan. After Syria Surprise, Russia Still Faces Long Odds on Middle East Gamble By: Judah Grunstein | Trend Lines Time is on America’s side in terms of responding to Russia’s intervention in Syria. Russia simply does not have the hardware or capacity to project force decisively over the long haul. But focusing too much on the Syrian conflict runs the risk of obscuring the broader question of how the Russian intervention impacts the regional picture. Japan Eyes Investment and Oil in Iran, but Closer Ties Far Off By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing With the nuclear deal’s finalization, Japan is looking to kick start economic ties with Iran and revive previous efforts at investing in its energy sector. While holding out investment as an inducement for Iran to comply with the agreement, Japan is also keen to resume the flow of Iranian oil imports. Shifting the Paradigm of America’s Fight With Extremism By: Steven Metz | Column After the attacks of Sept. 11, America’s strategic paradigm for the conflict with extremism relied on local militaries and governments to secure the places where extremism grows. For some reason, Americans have been slow to learn that, although this was an elegant solution, it hasn’t worked.