CFR Update: Islamic State Suspected in Turkey Bombing

October 12, 2015 Daily News Brief

TOP OF THE AGENDA Islamic State Suspected in Turkey Bombing Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the self-proclaimed Islamic State is the prime suspect (Guardian) in the twin suicide bombings that rocked peaceful rallies of pro-Kurdish activists and civic groups in the capital of Ankara on Saturday. Official numbers say that nearly one hundred people were killed (FT) with scores of others injured. The attacks come three weeks ahead of parliamentary elections and have sparked protests (LA Times) against the government.  Separately, the Iraqi military said that air strikes killed (Reuters) a number of senior figures of the Islamic State in western Iraq, but the group's leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was not among them.

ANALYSIS "The attack has further escalated the political tension in Turkey only 20 days before a re-election of key importance. Polls show that the chances of a similar outcome to the June 7 elections, which could force a coalition government, are higher than chances of Davutoglu's Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) regaining power in parliament. That would also mean that President Erdogan's hopes of changing the country’s regime into a presidential one would diminish further," writes Murat Yetkin in Hurriyet. "As the Islamic State moves to establish affiliates in other countries it may become easier to uncover those networks, because they will have to communicate over long distances and possibly assist one another financially, officials say. If the group's brutal rampage is to be halted, more effective efforts to undermine its finances are essential. Military force can be only one element of a multipronged strategy," writes the New York Times. "Turkey confronts many threats. Russian warplanes intervening in Syria have entered its airspace. Isis is on its borders. The war with the Kurds has reignited after reconciliation that Mr Erdogan engineered was so close. Its economy is weakening. It is suffering from purges of its security service and judiciary. There is, moreover, little sign that voters will change their June verdict and break the political gridlock. What the country desperately needs is a return to accountability and an end to incitement and polarization that opens it up to provocateurs. If not, this pivotal Nato ally and EU candidate member could really become ungovernable," writes the Financial Times.