WPR Articles Monday, July 20, 2015 - Friday, July 24, 2015 ‘Unforgivable’: El Chapo’s Escape Latest Embarrassment for Pena Nieto By: Benoît Gomis | Briefing Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman escaped last week from a maximum-security prison that was allegedly Mexico’s most secure. What does it mean for the Sinaloa cartel that he led, for Enrique Pena Nieto’s faltering presidency and security strategy, and for Mexico’s relations with the U.S.? Dividing Lines: Ukraine and the Future Shape of Europe By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Feature The Ukraine crisis has devolved into a status quo, with a tenuous cease-fire keeping alive hopes for a negotiated resolution. The problem is that the status quo is not sustainable. Within the next year, the future shape of eastern Europe will be determined. Here are four possible lines of development. France’s Hollande Finds Tricky Balance in Morocco, Algeria Ties By: George Joffé | Briefing Despite social and economic ties between France and its former colonies of Morocco and Algeria, diplomatic tensions, usually involving Algeria, remain. But in a recent reversal, Morocco has aired resentments over its colonial past, while Algeria has a newfound preference for close relations with France. Iran Deal Gives Unexpected Boost to Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood By: Frida Ghitis | Column Just days after the signing of a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program, another geopolitical tremor was felt across the region. Last Friday, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal traveled to Saudi Arabia, ending several years of chilly relations between the kingdom and the Palestinian group that rules Gaza. Why Americans Won’t Like the New Middle East Order By: Steven Metz | Column Today the Middle East is undergoing a radical transformation well beyond American control. Signs are that a triangular system is taking shape with three blocs,a ll of them hostile to the U.S. and Israel, competing for power. Americans aren’t going to like this new, triangular system. More India Tries to Legitimize Nuclear Program Through Arms Control By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, India formally applied to join the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), and it hopes to become a full member of the group by the end of this year. In an email interview, Dinshaw Mistry, professor at the University of Cincinnati, discussed the impact of MTCR membership on India’s missile program. With Interests at Stake, Great Powers Balk at International Law By: Richard Gowan | Column Can international legal mechanisms defuse tensions among the West, Russia and China? New spats over Ukraine and the South China Sea suggest Moscow and Beijing aren’t ready to submit their interests to legal reviews. Both seem determined to ensure they cannot be contained through international law. Despite Ukraine Tensions, Japan and Russia Ease Into Better Ties By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing Ties between Russia and Japan are slowly picking up steam again after a 16-month chill following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Even with the Ukraine crisis unresolved, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is looking to reinvigorate his policy embrace of Russia, with a balanced approach to President Vladimir Putin. Iran Nuclear Deal Offers Few Clear Nonproliferation Lessons By: Richard Weitz | Column In terms of the nonproliferation lessons it offers, the nuclear deal with Iran raises just as many questions as it answers. Certainly, the negotiations offer a rich field for research and reflection. Yet, while there are grounds for optimism, even hopeful hypotheses require confirmation. More Corruption in Brazil Makes Rousseff’s Bad Year Even Worse By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines A corruption probe of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is the latest headache for Lula’s embattled successor, Dilma Rousseff, and a political class shaken to the core by the ongoing Petrobas scandal. Rousseff’s popularity keeps plummeting, as calls for her impeachment grow louder. With Iran Nuclear Deal, Obama Guides U.S. to Middle East Off-Ramp By: Michael A. Cohen | Column Having sealed the Iran nuclear deal, the U.S. will not turn its back on the Middle East. In the near term, it will continue to fight the so-called Islamic State and backstop its partners’ security. But the days of U.S. immersion in the problems of the Middle East have surely reached an end point. Burundi’s Crisis Could Spill Over Borders as Armed Rebellion Grows By: Nina Wilén | Briefing The crisis that began in Burundi in April when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced his bid for a third term entered a new phase last week, when an unidentified armed group clashed with the army in the north of the country near the Rwandan border. The crisis’ regional repercussions may be inevitable. Iran Nuclear Deal a Necessary First Step Toward New Regional Order By: Judah Grunstein | Trend Lines As the debate over the Iran nuclear deal begins in Congress, many of the arguments against the agreement misrepresent the realities on the ground. Furthermore, the deal’s critics have ignored the geopolitical impact it will have beyond the region, thereby overlooking one of its key benefits. UAE Adopts Assertive Role to Counter Threats, Court Partners By: Peter Juul | Briefing At first glance, the United Arab Emirates might look like Saudi Arabia’s wingman when it comes to regional security. But appearances are deceiving. The UAE punches far above its weight in the Middle East, motivated by insecurity and the need to cultivate strong relationships with powerful partners.