Editors Note The Islamic State directs brutal propaganda at Western audiences, but uses much subtler messaging in the territories it controls. As Tyler Golson writes this week, much of its local propaganda focuses on the mundane—setting prices at markets and fixing potholes and streetlights—to normalize life under the caliphate. This media strategy “underscores a key strength of the Islamic State—namely, the banality of its coercion.” In his feature this week, W. Jonathan Rue explains how Congress and the Pentagon have chosen to game the system when it comes to defense sequestration, inflicting more damage on the military. “The mindless mechanism that was designed to be so ludicrously stupid that it would force the White House and Congress to make tough decisions in the overall federal budget,” he writes, “has nevertheless failed to force the Pentagon and Congress to make hard choices in the defense budget.” And in our new country report, Siobhán Brett looks at Ireland, where, after years of brutal austerity, the economy appears to be improving, but not everyone is experiencing the recovery. Coming up on WPR: Carrie Manning on political tensions in Mozambique, Peter Salisbury on Yemen’s anti-Houthi factions and, in our next feature, Lisa Sachs and Nicolas Maennling on beating the commodities cycle. —Frederick Deknatel, Associate Editor   WPR Articles May 18, 2015 - May 22, 2015 Foreign NGOs Hamstrung by Indian Funding Regulations By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, India canceled the licenses of 9,000 charities and NGOs for failing to declare information about foreign donations. In an interview, Noshir H. Dadrawala, CEO of the Centre for Advancement of Philanthropy, discussed the relationship between foreign NGOs and the Indian government. Latin America Weighs Risk and Rewards of Shale Revolution By: Paul Shortell | Briefing Latin America faces difficult choices as it looks to expand its nascent shale gas and oil industry. With approximately one-fourth of the world’s recoverable shale oil and gas reserves, the region is poised to reap the benefits of fracking, but it must weigh those against local resistance and environmental risks. Yemen Coalition Provides Cover for Aggressive New Saudi Foreign Policy By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines Saudi Arabia’s coalition against Houthi rebels is one thing in theory and another in practice, with Saudi forces doing the vast majority of the fighting, as airstrikes resumed across Yemen Monday after a brief cease-fire last week. The coalition gives Riyadh multilateral cover for its aggressive new foreign policy. Under Pope Francis, Vatican Flexes Its Global Political Muscle By: The Editors | Trend Lines Earlier this month, the Vatican concluded a treaty that recognizes the state of Palestine, immediately drawing criticism from Israel. In an interview, John L. Allen Jr., an associate editor at Crux and expert on Vatican affairs, discussed the Holy See’s foreign policy under Pope Francis. Ethiopia’s Suspenseless Elections Obscure Ruling Party Rivalries By: Charles Schaefer | Briefing Ethiopia’s elections Sunday look like a foregone conclusion: a one-sided victory for the longtime ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. Amid the stifling of opposition and signs of internal rivalries, most Ethiopians remain focused on the country’s economic boom.

More Can Putin Rebrand Russia as Stabilizing Force in Ukraine, Syria? By: Richard Gowan | Column Vladimir Putin looked a little isolated on May 9, when world leaders largely stayed away from Moscow’s parade commemorating the end of World War II. But since then, Angela Merkel has gone to Moscow for talks, and John Kerry has visited Putin in Sochi. Putin may not be globally popular, but he is no pariah. Islamic State’s Local Propaganda Key to Understanding Appeal By: Tyler Golson | Briefing To maintain support in Iraq and Syria and abroad, the Islamic State has developed a sophisticated local propaganda strategy across its territory. Unlike the savage propaganda designed to terrify Western audiences, the group’s local messaging focuses on the familiar and banal to normalize life under the caliphate. Mexico’s Energy Reforms Must Address Indigenous Concerns By: Alexis Arthur | Briefing President Enrique Pena Nieto has touted the potential for unprecedented levels of investment in Mexico’s overhauled energy sector. Yet the energy boom could negatively impact Mexico’s indigenous communities. New government laws, critics say, give preferential treatment to private development over community rights. New Advances Challenge Old Truths About China’s Nuclear Posture By: Richard Weitz | Column This year’s U.S. Defense Department report on Chinese military power details significant advances in Beijing’s nuclear forces. China’s nuclear capabilities have long been consistent with a minimal deterrence doctrine, but recent developments should lead us to revisit old truths about its nuclear posture. Shell Game: Congress, the Pentagon and Defense Sequestration By: W. Jonathan Rue | Feature When Republicans took control of the U.S. Congress last year, some in Washington believed that defense spending caps imposed in 2011 would be loosened, and the threat of sequestration repealed. But Congress and the Pentagon prefer to game the system, inflicting more damage on the military. Djibouti Cultivating Diverse Economic, Military Partnerships By: The Editors | Trend Lines China is in negotiations with Djibouti to open a military base in the country, adding to its current roster of French, U.S., Japanese and EU military facilities. In an interview, David Styan, lecturer in politics at Birkbeck College, University of London, discussed Djibouti’s foreign relations. France’s Hollande Exploits Political Openings to Deepen Gulf Ties By: Bruno Tertrais | Briefing French President Francois Hollande’s triumphal visit to Qatar and Saudi Arabia earlier this month took advantage of Arab displeasure at current U.S. policy in the region. But a look at the history and nature of France’s Gulf ties makes it clear that the honeymoon period could end up lasting. The Real Iraq War Debate’s Lessons for U.S. Foreign Policy By: Michael A. Cohen | Column More than 12 years after the U.S. invaded Iraq, it seems we’re no closer to learning the lessons of what may be the most ill-conceived war in American history. Case in point: the current debate playing out on the U.S. presidential campaign trail over whether the invasion was a good idea. BRICS Still Have a Long Way to Go From Grouping to Alliance By: Frida Ghitis | Column Ever since the BRICS grouping was coined in 2001, its members have been trying to transform their snappy acronym into a global player. And nobody has promoted that ambition more enthusiastically than Vladimir Putin. The problem is that not all BRICS members share his antipathy toward the West. Scandals Upend Bachelet’s Reform Agenda—and Chile’s Political Class By: Eric Farnsworth | Briefing Elected in a landslide to institute social reforms, Chilean President Michelle Bachelet has instead faced increasing political turbulence. On May 6, she asked her entire Cabinet to resign in order to breathe new life into her political agenda. It isn’t just Bachelet; Chile’s entire political class is on notice. For Hint of Iraq’s Future, Take Another Look at Vietnam War By: Steven Metz | Column Although it was common to hear ominous warnings of “another Vietnam” as Iraq devolved into insurgency in 2004, many soon concluded that the Vietnam analogy did not apply to Iraq. But Iraq’s unraveling over the past year suggests the Vietnam conflict may provide indications of Iraq’s future after all.