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The Middle East’s Five Dimensional Conflict
John McLaughlin, OZY
April 6, 2015
Never in modern times has the Middle East been so chaotic. Many of us who’ve worked on the region have been comparing it—frighteningly — to Europe’s
30 Years War (1618-48), during which many nations and groups battled
each other over everything from territory to religion and commerce… when
it was over, the European map had been completely redrawn and the rough
outline of the state system we know today came into view.
A more modern analogy is the multidimensional complexity of solving a Rubik’s Cube. Or, perhaps, it’s most like a barroom brawl: it’s
hard to be sure who started the fight, who is allied with whom, exactly
what is at issue, who just changed sides, who is fighting vs who is
just observing, where your leverage is, and how to break it up.
Just to review the bidding, the Islamic State has established a nominal “caliphate” in
large parts of Syria and Iraq, effectively erasing the border between
the two countries established in WWI; Saudi Arabia and Iran both oppose
the Islamic State but other issues have them at each others’ throats
via proxy wars in both Syria and Yemen. Wait, it continues: in Yemen,
the Saudi-supported government has fallen to Iranian-backed rebels. On
top of it all, Egypt is striking back militarily against extremists in
Libya and has joined up with Saudi Arabia in Yemen against those Iranian
rebels…
And that’s
just the nation-states. Within the terrorist movement, nothing is
certain; the complex offspring of Al-Qaeda are also jockeying for
territory in both Syria and Yemen.http://www.ozy.com/pov/mclaughlin-the-middle-east-conflict-with-5-dimensions/40985
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