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Thursday, April 9, 2015

Amid an Economic Crisis, Russia Contains Dissent

Amid an Economic Crisis, Russia Contains Dissent


With Russia entering its second recession in six years, the country's economic and financial hardships are starting to weigh on the Russian people and regional governments. In times of severe economic crisis, such as those in 1905 and 1998, the Russian populace and regional authorities traditionally react against federal authority, fragmenting the country. Those in power in Moscow understand this and are taking measures to ensure that they counter and prevent any social or regional backlash and dissent.

 

The Russian economy has been in steep decline for more than a year and is slipping into another recession. A constellation of factors is causing the decline, including lower oil prices, the West's sanctions and sour Western investment attitudes because of the Ukraine crisis. This has led to massive capital flight of $160 billion in 2014 and an estimated $80 billion in 2015, a volatile ruble that lost 40 percent of its value in late 2014, and a likely federal budget deficit of approximately $45 billion in 2015.

Want more background on this issue? See also this free Stratfor video: Conversation: How Vladimir Putin Rose, and Could Fall, in Russia

The Russian people are starting to feel the pain. In March, inflation skyrocketed from just under 7 percent the previous month to nearly 17 percent. According to a Levada poll, Russians see inflation as the most acute problem facing Russian society.

Food price inflation has risen even faster because...

Read more »https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/amid-economic-crisis-russia-contains-dissent?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_term=article&utm_campaign=20150409&mc_cid=de14ce5b52&mc_eid=52511177bc

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