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The Islamic State is Losing, But No One Is Winning
Look at a map of Syria and Iraq, and it should be
obvious: the Islamic State is losing this war. Having taken on more
enemies than it could ever hope to handle after threatening to undo the Iraqi state—while also declaring war on the Muslim world by announcing itself a caliphate, provoking an enormous countermobilization of sectarian Shia militias, and goading a U.S.-led coalition of more than 60 nations into battle by all manners of calculated atrocities—the Islamic State is now losing men and territory at an absolutely unsustainable pace.
Since reaching the peak of its influence in September and October
2014, the Sunni extremist group has faced one defeat after another. The
Islamic State’s thrust into Iraqi Kurdistan in August 2014, which
provoked the initial U.S. intervention, ran out of steam almost
immediately. It then bet all on victory against U.S.-backed Kurdish
forces in Kobane,
in northern Syria, and lost. The Islamic State has been pushed back by
Kurdish groups further east too, including south of the Syrian city
Qamishli, along the Syria-Iraq border, and inside Iraq at Mount Sinjar.
Repeated jihadi offensives against the Syrian government enclave in Deir ez-Zor have also been beaten back, while fighting continues around the Shaer gas field east of Homs. The Islamic State’s advances into the rebel-held hinterland north of Aleppo seem to have stalled too, although the future of the area hinges on the outcome of a parallel battle between local Sunni rebels and Syrian government forces.
North of Baghdad, the Islamic State’s attempts to ignite the ethno-sectarian powder keg in Kirkuk have so far been thwarted by Kurdish peshmerga forces, while Iranian-backed Kurds and Shia militias have purged the Iraqi countryside to the south and along the Iraq-Iran border. Having more or less rooted out the Islamic State from Diyala Province and the eastern areas of the Tamim and Salaheddin Provinces, the Shia militia forces then pivoted to assault the Sunni stronghold of Tikrit. By mid-March 2015, the jihadi forces in the city seemed to be on the ropes, putting the Islamic State at risk of its most significant defeat yet.http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=59367&mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRons6TKZKXonjHpfsX57uQsW6Sg38431UFwdcjKPmjr1YIITsp0aPyQAgobGp5I5FEIQ7XYTLB2t60MWA%3D%3D
Repeated jihadi offensives against the Syrian government enclave in Deir ez-Zor have also been beaten back, while fighting continues around the Shaer gas field east of Homs. The Islamic State’s advances into the rebel-held hinterland north of Aleppo seem to have stalled too, although the future of the area hinges on the outcome of a parallel battle between local Sunni rebels and Syrian government forces.
North of Baghdad, the Islamic State’s attempts to ignite the ethno-sectarian powder keg in Kirkuk have so far been thwarted by Kurdish peshmerga forces, while Iranian-backed Kurds and Shia militias have purged the Iraqi countryside to the south and along the Iraq-Iran border. Having more or less rooted out the Islamic State from Diyala Province and the eastern areas of the Tamim and Salaheddin Provinces, the Shia militia forces then pivoted to assault the Sunni stronghold of Tikrit. By mid-March 2015, the jihadi forces in the city seemed to be on the ropes, putting the Islamic State at risk of its most significant defeat yet.http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=59367&mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRons6TKZKXonjHpfsX57uQsW6Sg38431UFwdcjKPmjr1YIITsp0aPyQAgobGp5I5FEIQ7XYTLB2t60MWA%3D%3D
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