WPR Articles Feb. 23, 2015 - Feb. 27, 2015 Europe Needs Strategy to Address Libya, Ukraine Crises—Not Panic By: Richard Gowan | Column Just how bad is Europe’s strategic situation? Over the past week, senior European officials have piled up dire predictions about the impact of crises in Ukraine and Libya on the continent’s security. This all sounds rather like panic, which is rarely the basis for good strategy. After Years of Talk, U.S.-India Defense Ties Gain Traction By: Saurav Jha | Briefing U.S. President Barack Obama’s January visit to India saw some long-awaited movement on the two countries’ Defense Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI), touted by both sides as a means to transform the current buyer-seller defense relationship into one based on coproduction and co-development. Despite Detainee Transfers, Odds Against Obama Closing Guantanamo By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines A steady stream of detainees transferred from Guantanamo Bay in recent months has revived hopes that the prison could be closed, fulfilling a long-term pledge of U.S. President Barack Obama. But what about the dozens of prisoners still designated for indefinite military detention without charge or trial? Next Up in Somalia’s Fragile Transition: Bridge Political Divides By: Cleophus Tres Thomas III | Briefing With only two years left in its mandate, expectations are high that Somalia’s government can work with the country’s fractious stakeholders and complete an ambitious post-conflict transition plan. But that rests on improving cooperation on key political challenges and closing security gaps. Greece’s Reversal Puts China’s Mediterranean Plans Back on Track By: Emanuele Scimia | Briefing While the world watches the ongoing debt negotiations between Greece and its international creditors mainly for their impact on the Greek and eurozone economies, the talks have already bolstered Beijing’s plans to further integrate Europe and the Mediterranean with the Chinese market.     More Greece Bailout Talks Are Syriza’s First Real Test in Power By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines On Friday, European finance ministers meeting in Brussels reached a deal to extend Greece’s bailout by four months. But the deal remains tenuous, with the European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Fund waiting for a list of planned reforms from the Greeks before releasing funds. U.S. Recruits Europe and Latin America to Press Cuba to Open Up By: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing Washington hopes its new approach to Cuba will enable it to recruit European and Latin American allies to push Havana on human rights and democracy. But if the U.S. succeeds at pulling together a broad coalition of countries to pressure Cuba on political liberalization, is it likely to be effective? As China Ponders BMD Options, U.S. Must Consider Responses By: Richard Weitz | Column China has been researching ballistic missile defense for years, albeit on a low-key basis and with no clear commitment to deploy a national system. Nevertheless, China’s BMD capabilities could eventually affect strategic stability between China and the U.S., putting the issue on policymakers’ radar. Hide in Plain Sight: The Strategic Challenge of ‘Gray Swans’ By: Michael J. Mazarr | Feature Conventional wisdom holds that the biggest threats to strategy come from sudden and unexpected events, or “black swans.” But too little attention has been paid to a more common problem: “gray swans,” risks that are anticipated but that remain fundamentally improbable, and for that reason are disregarded. Maduro Gets More Desperate Amid Venezuela’s Disarray By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stepped up his crackdown on his political opponents with the arrest last week of the mayor of Caracas, Antonio Ledezma, on trumped-up charges of plotting a coup. Maduro has only grown more desperate as state coffers empty and an economic crisis deepens. Libya Needs More Than Unity Government to Halt IS Rise By: Mohamed Eljarh | Briefing Four years after the revolution began to overthrow Moammar Gadhafi’s regime, Libya today faces a new and very real threat: militants affiliated with the Islamic State. But the group’s advance must be understood in the wider context of Libya’s civil war, and Libyans cannot tackle it alone. With Cease-Fire, Ukraine Remains Stuck Between Russia and the West By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column Even if the present cease-fire holds in Ukraine and succeeds in halting open warfare, the effect will only be temporary. The best that can be hoped for, it seems, is a truce that allows Ukraine some ability to reconstruct itself, but where Kiev is left precariously perched between Russia and the West. One Month On, Gauging Saudi Arabia’s New King By: Frida Ghitis | Column One month has passed since King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud ascended to the throne to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He took power at a moment of turbulence and potentially lasting, dramatic change. Understanding how he will steer his country is a matter of great interest around the globe. With Baltic Military Drills, Russia and NATO Test Each Other’s Limits By: David Klion | Trend Lines The three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—are faced with the possibility that Russia might subject them to the same strategy as Ukraine. Russia has been testing NATO’s commitment to the Baltics in recent months, and NATO in turn is stepping up its military exercises in the region. Making Libya a U.N. Protectorate Would Be Wise but Impossible By: Steven Metz | Column Libya is a mess and rapidly getting worse, as the Islamic State moves in. Only one option has even a theoretical chance of turning Libya around: a United Nations protectorate. But there are very few nations with enough surplus military power to commit to what could be a very long-term operation.