Why the Bombing Campaign in Syria Isn't Working Well
10/13/14
Paul R. Pillar
Syria, Middle East
The
U.S. air war in Syria has not gotten off to an encouraging start. For
many observers the principal indicator of that is a lack of setbacks for
ISIS, as the group continues to besiege a Kurdish-held town near the
Turkish border. We ought to be at least as discouraged, however, by the
negative reactions to the airstrikes from the “moderate” Syrian
opposition groups that the strikes are supposed to help and in whom so
much hope is being placed if U.S. policy toward the Syrian conflict is
to begin to make any sense. Harakat Hazm, a group considered
sufficiently moderate and effective to have received the first shipments
of U.S.-made anti-tank weapons, called the U.S. campaign “a sign of
failure whose devastation will spread to the whole region.”
It
is early in that campaign, of course, and if searching hard enough one
can also find some more encouraging signs. The airstrikes in Iraq still
have more support. And ISIS in Syria at least seems to have seen the
necessity of lowering its visibility in places it controls such as
Raqqa—although its blending even more closely into the civilian
population will make future airstrikes that much harder to do.
Despite
administration statements about having to think in long-haul terms,
patience in Washington will wear thin amid meager results. Pressures for escalation
will increasingly be felt. In response to comments from opposition
groups about how the airstrikes are insufficiently coordinated with, and
have not aided, their operations on the ground, expect to hear more
talk in Washington about a need for putting U.S. personnel on that
ground.
That
sort of talk ought to be met with a reminder of the fundamental
reasons—the inconvenient facts of the Syrian situation that constitute a
still-unsquared circle—that will continue to make for poor results.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/why-the-bombing-campaign-syria-isnt-working-well-11460
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