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Turkey’s Dangerous Bet on Syria
Sinan Ülgen
Op-Ed October 9, 2014 | New York Times | http://carnegieeurope.eu/2014/
Sinan Ülgen
Op-Ed October 9, 2014 | New York Times | http://carnegieeurope.eu/2014/
Summary
Turkey’s
policy of conditioning its anti–Islamic State engagement on support for
an anti-Assad campaign will be at best ineffective and at worst
counterproductive.
WASHINGTON — With the
Islamic State just miles from its border, Turkey is now facing its most
severe security challenge in decades. In response, the Turkish
government is seeking to accomplish the impossible; Ankara wants to
fight the Islamic State, carry out regime change in Syria and roll back
Kurdish autonomy all at the same time.
The risk of this overambitious approach is that it could end up accomplishing none of these objectives while squandering the opportunity to contribute to the stabilization of the region. Underpinning this risky strategy is a questionable assumption and an equally dubious policy decision.
Turkey assumes that remaining indifferent to the fate of the besieged Kurdish enclave of Kobani will not imperil its peace negotiations with Turkey’s own Kurds. Ankara has done little to assist the Kurdish enclave, ruled by an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party, or P.K.K. In Ankara’s eyes, the Syrian Kurds fighting there are essentially allies of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria.
The risk of this overambitious approach is that it could end up accomplishing none of these objectives while squandering the opportunity to contribute to the stabilization of the region. Underpinning this risky strategy is a questionable assumption and an equally dubious policy decision.
Turkey assumes that remaining indifferent to the fate of the besieged Kurdish enclave of Kobani will not imperil its peace negotiations with Turkey’s own Kurds. Ankara has done little to assist the Kurdish enclave, ruled by an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party, or P.K.K. In Ankara’s eyes, the Syrian Kurds fighting there are essentially allies of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria.
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