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Middle East Briefing
October 12, 2104

The `Russian Factor’ in the War against the Islamic State

After the failure of the Geneva II efforts at achieving a political solution to the Syrian civil war and the growing tensions between Washington and Moscow over the Ukraine crisis, the Russian role in the ongoing war on the Islamic State has been subdued at best. But Moscow has a vested interest in the successful crushing of IS (ISIL) in Syria and Iraq—before the jihadists expand their operations back into the Caucasus region of Russia and neighboring Georgia.

While it would be an exaggeration to say that the Islamic State poses an existential threat to the survival of the Putin government in Russia, it is the case that an upsurge in jihadist terrorism would have a serious destabilizing impact on Russia at a very critical moment of political realignment and economic transformation.