A Revival of Sanctions: How to Get Iran to Compromise on a Nuclear Deal

A Revival of Sanctions: How to Get Iran to Compromise on a Nuclear Deal

10/21/14

Emanuele Ottolenghi, Saeed Ghasseminejad

Nonproliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Iran, United States, Europe

The sanctions relief provided by the Obama administration has helped the Iranian economy to the point where Iran doesn't see a need to make concessions on a nuclear deal. Time to increase pressure on Tehran.

When the Obama administration signed the nuclear interim agreement with Iran last November, it insisted that the scope of sanctions relief was limited, its impact modest and the duration of the interim deal so short that whatever benefits Iran may reap were fully reversible.

The administration remains adamant that its predictions were accurate, but in fact, Iran’s current economic data show something altogether different and more troubling. Iran’s economy, on the eve of the interim agreement, was on the verge of collapse. Today, weeks away from the deadline for a final deal, it is on course for recovery. Limited sanctions relief prematurely squandered much of the leverage the Obama administration and its European partners had with Iran. Ten months of sanctions relief failed to deliver a deal and only delivered Iran from economic collapse. Western leverage, already diminished before major Iranian concessions are obtained, will continue to shrink over time, if further extensions are required to reach what has so far proved to be an elusive deal.

According to the Central Bank of Iran, during the first quarter of Iran’s calendar year (Spring 2014), Iran experienced a 4.6 percent growth rate, as compared to the previous year. Even more impressively, this growth touched all sectors of Iran’s economy.

According to Iran’s Ministry of Industries and Business, Iran has manufactured 71 percent more cars in the first four months of Iran’s current calendar year (April to July 2014) compared to the same period last year, a direct result of sanctions suspension against Iran’s automotive sector. According to Masoud Soltanifar, the Chairman of Iran’s Tourism Organization, Iran has enjoyed a 200 percent increase in the number of foreign tourists compared to 2013.

Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/revival-sanctions-how-get-iran-compromise-nuclear-deal-11504