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Friday, September 19, 2014

WPR Articles Sept. 13, 2014 - Sept. 19, 2014

WPR Articles Sept. 13, 2014 - Sept. 19, 2014

U.S. Strategy for Defeating the Islamic State Group Won't Work

By: Steven Metz | Column
President Barack Obama’s strategy for dealing with the Islamic State group appeals to a weary nation, but it is unlikely to work because it violates two cardinal rules of strategy: The resources are not commensurate with the objectives, and the coalition’s objectives are not in sync.

Modi, Xi Put India-China Economic Ties Ahead of Border Tensions

By: Anuradha Sharma | Briefing
China and India signed more than a dozen agreements, including a pledge of $20 billion in Chinese investment, during President Xi Jinping’s first official visit to India. However, bitterness in India over alleged Chinese incursions into Indian territory loomed large over the talks.

Waiting for Disruption: The Western Sahara Stalemate

By: Jacob Mundy | Feature
The Western Sahara conflict is fast approaching its 40th anniversary with no end in sight. A web of geopolitical interests keeps the conflict in a permanent state of limbo. Therein lies the paradox: The peace process now exists to contain the conflict, but only a crisis will save Western Sahara.

Can Obama Count on ‘Coalition of the Willing’ to Fight Islamic State Group?

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
The apparent rule of thumb for U.S. military operations is to ensure dramatic results without U.S. casualties. So the U.S. provides the air force but others handle the ground game. If that is the case for the fight against the Islamic State group, however, there are some caveats in play.

Border Disputes, Political Tensions Threaten Needed Cooperation in Central America

By: Christine Wade | Briefing
In early September, the Honduran military raised the Honduran flag over the disputed Conejo Island, quickly raising the ire of El Salvador’s government. The incident highlighted tensions within the region at a time when cooperation and collaboration are more important than ever.

Despite Saakashvili Prosecution, Georgia Moves West

By: David Klion | Trend Lines
Last month, Georgian prosecutors filed charges against former President Mikheil Saakashvili for misallocating public funds while in office. While Saakashvili is strongly identified with Georgia’s pro-Western foreign policy, the new government in Tbilisi has only intensified this policy.

Having Tried Hope, Obama Turns to Fear to Reaffirm U.S. Power

By: Richard Gowan | Column
In a 2009 U.N. speech, Barack Obama called hope the most powerful weapon in the world’s arsenal and argued for “the confidence that conflicts can end.” Five years on, Obama is fighting conflicts that refuse to end, and his most potent diplomatic weapon is not hope, but fear.

Africa’s M-PESA Money Transfer System Comes to Europe

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last month the Kenyan-based mobile money transfer system M-PESA launched in Romania. In an email interview, Diane Mullenex, a partner at the law firm of Pinsent Masons, discussed the expansion of M-PESA outside of Africa.

In Fight Against Islamic State, Iraqi Kurds Are Problematic Partners

By: Balint Szlanko | Briefing
Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government is a key partner in any anti-ISIS coalition. Yet the KRG still has its own strategic ambitions, some of which are potentially problematic and contrary to a unified Iraq. And under its democratic facade, there run some troubling political currents.

Islamic State Threat Puts Independence on Hold for Iraq’s Kurds

By: Hannes Cerny | Briefing
Western fears that Iraqi Kurdistan could use military aid to secede from Iraq by force are ill-founded. Precisely because Kurds are integrated in the international coalition against ISIS—and because of developments in the past two months—any unilateral pursuit of independence has receded.

Responding to Crises, SCO Finally Embraces Expansion

By: Richard Weitz | Column
After years of stasis, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at its latest summit finally agreed to consider expanding the organization’s membership, which has remained fixed since its foundation in 2001. But the group still faces several obstacles to expanding its role in Eurasia.

Boko Haram, Corruption Purges Put Cameroon on Edge

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing
Alongside the political risks of President Paul Biya’s desire to stay in power indefinitely, two short-term problems stoke anxiety in Cameroon: the potential for destructive escalation in the fight with Boko Haram, and the ambiguous effects of an aggressive anti-corruption campaign.

Syria’s Battlefield Realities Undermine U.S. Strategy on Islamic State Group

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines
Last week, the entire leadership of one of Syria’s strongest rebel groups, the deeply conservative Salafi movement Ahrar al-Sham, was killed in a bombing. As the U.S. mobilizes a coalition against the Islamic State group, the attack could have domino effects across Syria’s civil war.

A Tale of Two Interventions: U.S. Content to Contain Islamic State Group and Ebola

By: Judah Grunstein | Briefing
Despite obvious differences, the U.S. military missions against the Islamic State group and the Ebola virus share many similarities. Perhaps most significantly, both can be contained with limited interventions, but to defeat them will require resources the U.S. is unlikely to commit.

The King’s Speech Signals Shift in Dutch, European Worries

By: Frida Ghitis | Column
The annual king’s speech in the Netherlands this year reflected a new emphasis on security issues, owing to Dutch casualties in the Malaysian jet shot down over Ukraine as well as the growing threat from the Islamic State group. But economic health remains a significant concern.

Xi Rewrites China’s Hong Kong Policy as ‘One Country, One Destiny’

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Hong Kong’s Occupy Central movement marched Sunday to demand the right to elect the city’s chief executive. In an email interview, Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center, discussed the quest for greater democracy in Hong Kong.

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