Why Obama's War on ISIL Won't Hold Its Popularity

Why Obama's War on ISIL Won't Hold Its Popularity

09/17/14

A. Trevor Thrall

The Presidency, Foreign Policy, Security, Counterinsurgency, Iraq, United States

"Despite the apparently strong initial wave of support for confronting ISIL, however, Obama’s campaign will almost certainly become a very unpopular affair." 

With the prime-time announcement of his campaign to destroy ISIL, President Obama is staking his presidency in a place he certainly never intended. Obama launches his campaign with what appears to be a reasonable level of public support. A September CNN/ORC poll found that roughly 75 percent of the public supports airstrikes against ISIL, a figure that may climb a bit higher in the wake of Obama’s address to the nation on September 10. This support compares relatively favorably with most U.S. military interventions of the past (see Gallup’s list of public support by major intervention here), closer to initial levels of support for Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, than to the invasion of Panama or the Kosovo air war.

Despite the apparently strong initial wave of support for confronting ISIL, however, Obama’s campaign will almost certainly become a very unpopular affair. This will occur despite his best efforts to frame the campaign as part of the war against terrorism, despite his strategy to maintain support by avoiding the use of ground troops and U.S. casualties, and it will happen regardless of how much damage the United States manages to inflict on ISIL.

Americans are Tired of War (Especially in the Middle East)

The president should draw little comfort from recent polling showing that Americans have edged towards support for a more activist foreign policy. For starters, 40 percent of Americans still think the United States needs to be less active in world affairs compared to 25 percent who think the United States should be more active. And in general, Americans are less interested in “leaning in” than at any point since the end of the Cold War.

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http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-obamas-war-isil-wont-hold-its-popularity-11292