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Friday, August 22, 2014

WPR Articles Aug. 18, 2014 - Aug. 22, 2014

WPR Articles Aug. 18, 2014 - Aug. 22, 2014

Iran’s Rouhani Stokes Domestic Backlash With Attack on Critics

By: Nader Habibi | Briefing
In an address last week to Foreign Ministry officials, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani did not hold back his frustration with critics of nuclear negotiations with the P5+1. Deviating from his usual calm and moderate tone, Rouhani told his critics to go “to hell.” The backlash could further polarize Iranian politics and bring deep-rooted tensions between reformists and conservatives to the surface.

Jokowi's Test: Managing Indonesia's Old Guard—and Civil Society's Hopes

By: Sue Gunawardena-Vaughn | Briefing
With their central role in his successful campaign, Indonesian civil society groups’ expectations run high that Joko Widodo’s presidency will be marked by transparency, accountability, rule of law and respect for human rights. But it remains to be seen if Jokowi can deliver on all that, given Indonesia’s notoriously fractious politics, decentralized Kafkaesque bureaucracy and messy political infrastructure.

2016 Election Will Redraw Road Map for U.S. National Security

By: Steven Metz | Column
The United States is at a transitional point in its national security strategy perhaps as crucial as the opening years of the Cold War. During the 2016 presidential campaign, debate about America’s role in the world will move into the limelight as differing visions within and between the Democratic and Republican parties clarify policy options and choices. For U.S. and global security, much will be at stake.

The Costs and Benefits of Trade Agreement Disputes

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last month, Germany voiced concerns over the inclusion of an Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) in the free trade agreement between the European Union and Canada. In an email interview, Timothy Josling, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, discussed the settlements and their role in international trade agreements.

Upcoming Mozambique Election Prompts Push for Peace

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Earlier this month, Mozambique passed an amnesty law that will allow Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the opposition Renamo Party, to return from hiding and run in the Oct. 15 presidential election. In an email interview, Elisabete Azevedo-Harman, research fellow at Chatham House, discussed the evolving political landscape in Mozambique.

South Korea’s Economic Growth Holds Steady

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last month South Korea unveiled a $40 billion economic stimulus package designed to boost a lagging growth rate. In an email interview, Dwight Perkins, professor emeritus of political economy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, discussed the state of South Korea’s economy.

Why the International System Is Still Worth Fighting For

By: Richard Gowan | Column
The multilateral security system is stumbling around the world as it suffers from major structural weaknesses. Yet elements of it have worked surprisingly well in the current set of crises, from documenting atrocities in Syria to mediating in Ukraine. Despite setbacks, a mix of international officials and observers, soldiers and governments remain willing to stand up for the vulnerable and uphold that system.

Al-Shabab: A Close Look at East Africa's Deadliest Radicals

By: Peter Dörrie | Feature More than any other organization, Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahedeen, widely known as al-Shabab, has left its mark on the recent history of Somalia. Political and radical Islam have a long history in the country, but no group has survived longer than al-Shabab, and no group has emerged stronger from challenges and setbacks. Today, the group has emerged from an existential crisis and looks stronger than it has in years. Though al-Shabab is often referred to as simply a “terrorist group,” the term does not accurately describe the range of the group’s activities. As perhaps the most important spoiler on Somalia's way toward peace, al-Shabab's current situation warrants an assessment.

Unstable Opposition Means Reform in Malaysia Unlikely

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Malaysia’s opposition coalition risks being torn apart after its leader Anwar Ibrahim sacked the chief minister of Selangor, the country’s most populous state. In an email interview, Clive Kessler, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales, discussed the state of Malaysia’s opposition.

When it Comes to Nonproliferation, China Has Been a ‘Free Rider’

By: Richard Weitz | Column
The Chinese, U.S. President Barack Obama said in a recent interview, “have been free riders for the last 30 years,” while the U.S. has maintained international security for the good of the world. Although Obama might not have meant to be so blunt, his remarks reflect a widespread view within Washington that China, in order to minimize foreign risks, has not been as helpful on many global issues, especially nonproliferation.

Maoist Insurgency Still Simmers in Modi’s India

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Two Indian police officers were injured over the weekend when Maoist insurgents detonated a landmine below their convoy. In an email interview, P.V. Ramana, a research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, discussed the insurgency of Maoist groups, also known as Naxalites, and the Modi administration’s response.

Uganda’s Longtime Strongman Faces a New Rival: His Restless Soldiers

By: Harry Verhoeven | Briefing
Nearly 30 years after taking power, President Yoweri Museveni still dominates Uganda’s politics. While the civilian opposition appears impotent to legally break his grip on power, the internal dynamics of the armed forces are another matter. Museveni has a twin strategy of keeping the army under control and having his son Muhoozi Kaneirugaba succeed him, but resentment in the military is festering.

Brazil Plane Crash Spawns Two-Woman Presidential Race

By: Frida Ghitis | Column
The life story of Brazil’s Marina Silva is so unlikely that she explains key moments by divine intervention. Among the most dramatic and potentially life-changing of all unlikely turns came last week, when a private plane in which she was supposed to be traveling crashed, killing Socialist Party presidential candidate Eduardo Campos and suddenly turning her into a formidable contender for the presidency of Brazil.

How Latin America Can Maximize Its Shale Gas Potential

By: Eric Farnsworth | Briefing
Thanks to technological advances, shale gas is revolutionizing the world’s energy landscape. The size of reserves within the Western Hemisphere in particular provides the region with an enviable opportunity for leadership in global shale gas. But Latin America still has work to do to maximize its energy potential. The natural resources clearly exist; fully developing shale remains a matter of political will.

Despite Hope of Minsk Summit, Damage Done to Russia-West Relations

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
Next week, Russian President Vladimir Putin will have a face-to-face trilateral summit in Belarus with Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko and a European Union delegation headed by its foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, and Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger. The summit has an ambitious agenda on the table to defuse the Ukraine crisis. Assuming that a major breakthrough does occur in Minsk, what next?

Rebel Divisions Already Plague Latest Round of Mali Peace Talks

By: Hannah Rae Armstrong | Briefing
Tuareg rebels and Malian officials have begun meeting in Algeria to try and hammer out the terms of a lasting peace in northern Mali. In July, the parties signed a road map deal that paved the way for talks on an array of political and security issues. In September, they will return to Algiers for three weeks of negotiations. But so far, divisions among rebel groups threaten to complicate the prospects for peace.

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