WPR Articles Aug. 11, 2014 - Aug. 15, 2014

Chile’s Bachelet Tacks Center to Pursue Needed Reform at Home

By: Eric Farnsworth | Briefing

Eyebrows arched in Chile late last month when President Michelle Bachelet canceled her participation in a MERCOSUR summit in Venezuela to focus on her domestic agenda, including education reform. Critics suggested this was because the signature reforms are in trouble. But Bachelet chose to remain in Chile to work on issues of real importance to Chileans, and to her own political fortunes and legacy.

MERS Outbreak Shows Weakness of Saudi Arabia’s Public Health System

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, scientists discovered that the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), so far responsible for just under 300 deaths in Saudi Arabia, may spread through the air. In an email interview, Jeremy Youde, associate professor of political science at the University of Minnesota Duluth, discussed Saudi Arabia’s public health system and its response to the MERS outbreak.

Risks and Realities of the Egyptian-Israeli Alliance Against Hamas

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

With another ceasefire set to expire, Israeli and Palestinian diplomats are in Cairo for Egyptian-brokered talks to end the fighting in Gaza. Egypt is hardly a neutral mediator: President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi’s hostility toward the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoot, Hamas, is no secret; neither is Egypt’s security relationship with Israel. But the inner workings of that relationship are rarely exposed.

After Election Victory, Turkey's Erdogan Unlikely to Change Ways

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan fulfilled predictions by winning the country’s first direct presidential election Sunday. But rather than putting an end to the divisive political battles that have roiled the country and the inflammatory stance that has strained Turkey’s relations with neighbors, Erdogan’s victory promises to usher in yet another era of contentious domestic and international politics.

Ukraine Crisis Torpedoes Russia-Japan Rapprochement

By: Richard Weitz | Briefing

One of the major sticking points to improved Japan-Russia relations has long been the two sides’ territorial dispute over the Southern Kurils. Now the two countries have an opportunity to change matters. For the first time in decades, both have leaders who could negotiate a territorial compromise and then sell it domestically. But the Ukraine crisis has put an end to earlier hopes for a resolution.

More U.S., Russia Duel Over Humanitarian Interventions in Iraq and Ukraine By: Richard Gowan | Column There has been a lot of talk about humanitarian interventions over the past week. Russia has pressed for a “humanitarian mission” to the war zone in eastern Ukraine. While telling Russia to back off, the Obama administration has launched air strikes in Iraq against the forces of the Islamic State. The humanitarian case for American action is clear. It may nonetheless also have unwelcome consequences. Mexico Making an Effort to Expand Ties in Middle East By: The Editors | Trend Lines Mexican Foreign Minister Jose Antonio Meade visited Jordan last month to discuss expanding diplomatic ties. In an email interview, Alejandra Galindo Marines, professor of social sciences at the University of Monterrey, discussed Mexico’s relations with the Middle East. Nagorno-Karabakh’s Summer of Violence By: Laurence Broers | Feature This year, while Europe commemorated 100 years since the beginning of World War I, a long-forgotten conflict on the edge of the continent rumbled on. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a contest for control over Nagorno-Karabakh for more than 25 years. Following a particularly dismal stretch of the peace process over the past two years, tensions have come to a head in a summer of violence along the front line. Yet while front-line casualties have dominated the headlines, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has also become a formidable weapon for both Armenia and Azerbaijan to securitize politics, exclude opposition and explain away the absence of domestic reforms. NATO Summit Must Make Further Progress on Smart Defense By: Richard Weitz | Column Next month’s NATO summit needs to make greater progress on Smart Defense, the alliance-wide effort to get more collective benefits out of individual members’ defense budgets. The initiative aims to induce NATO members to acquire military capabilities collectively, so that smaller members can contribute to expensive joint projects. Unfortunately, Smart Defense initiatives have so far produced limited results. West Can Use Nagorno-Karabakh Tensions to Push Azerbaijan to Reform By: Aslan Amani | Briefing Clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh have prompted worries of a full-fledged war. But Russia’s presence in Armenia suggests that the escalation has less to do with the two belligerent parties and more with Russia’s growing geopolitical ambitions. The West shouldn’t abandon Azerbaijan but must make clear that the usual way of doing business will not work. The Rise of the Islamic State and the Evolution of Violent Extremism By: Steven Metz | Column From Yemen to Africa, violent extremists are leaving al-Qaida-affiliated groups and joining the ultra-radical and violent movement now known as the Islamic State. This gives some worrisome hints about the future of extremism in the Islamic world. That the U.S. is attacking the Islamic State rather than al-Qaida shows militants exactly who Washington considers to be the largest threat. U.S., India Seek to Move Defense Ties Beyond Arms Sales By: Saurav Jha | Briefing Last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel visited India to sound out Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the Defense Trade and Technology Initiative, the “centerpiece” of the U.S.-India security relationship. To sustain ties with a new Indian government focused on leveraging weapons manufacturing for jobs, Washington realizes it must move beyond arms sales to co-development and co-production agreements. Hungary’s Orban a Threat to ‘Liberal Democracy’—and EU Norms By: David Klion | Trend Lines In April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s conservative Fidesz party maintained its majority in parliament in national elections. Since then, Orban’s reactionary rhetoric has only increased, most notably in a speech last month in which he rejected “liberal democracy” as the model for Hungary. No head of state in the EU has ever so bluntly aligned with autocratic values. With Eye on Russia, Poland Reshapes Military Modernization Plan By: Tomasz Szatkowski | Briefing Compared to other Central European countries, the Polish military might appear to be a giant, due to Poland’s size but also its relatively high fixed level of defense spending. But it still has to face a seriously deteriorated security environment with fewer expectations of help from its Western allies. Poland needs to craft a more cohesive military modernization plan to respond to an array of challenges. EU Strives to Overcome Its North-South, East-West Divides By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines The current debate in the EU over how to respond to the Ukraine crisis highlights the political and ideological divisions between Eastern and Western Europe. Meanwhile, the economic division between Northern and Southern Europe stemming from the eurozone crisis are as strong as ever. The EU is taking steps to overcome these divisions and create a more united union, but lasting solutions are hard to come by. Time for the U.S. to Make Hard Choices on Russia, Middle East By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column It is the misfortune of the Obama administration to preside over the unraveling of several long-term U.S. strategies in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The tactics used by previous administrations to delay making hard choices in the hope that problems would resolve themselves without Washington being required to make sacrifices are no longer available, as the crises in both regions make abundantly clear.