A Game of Russian Roulette? The West's Dangerous Sanctions Play against Russia

A Game of Russian Roulette? The West's Dangerous Sanctions Play against Russia

08/14/14

Rajan Menon

Security, Sanctions, Russia, United States

"Russia can inflict even more economic pain on Ukraine than it has, leaving the West to pick up the tab."

Current Western policy toward Russia, as it pertains to the Ukraine crisis, rests on several premises, each of them flawed.

The first is that President Vladimir Putin's progressive political isolation will persuade him to retreat and to settle the Ukraine crisis on terms favored by the West and the Ukrainian government.

The second is that Western economic sanctions will force Putin to change course and will hurt Russia but not Europe, or that they will hit Russia much harder. The bottom line is that the sanctions strategy assumes that Russia will cry "Uncle" first.

The third assumption underlying Western policy, and it is unstated because the official line of Washington and Brussels is that they support a political settlement, is that the Ukrainian army will soon overcome the insurgency by force of arms—that Kiev’s military is on a roll and that the trend will continue and culminate in a triumph.

There is no evidence whatsoever to support the first two premises—and the third deserves scrutiny because it is shaky.

Let’s start with the effects of international isolation.

There’s no denying that Putin has paid a political price, particularly in the West, and especially after the downing of MH17. But that downside hasn’t been accompanied by an erosion of popularity at home.

Indeed, so far, the crisis over Ukraine has improved Putin’s standing among Russians compared to last year, with over 80 percent opining this summer that he is doing a good job as president.

It may be hard to discern what Russians “really” think about what their government is up to in Ukraine, and it’s a safe bet that not a few of them are worried about how the sanctions will affect their personal budgets and even about the risks of war.

Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/game-russian-roulette-the-wests-dangerous-sanctions-play-11075