WPR Articles July 7, 2014 - July 11, 2014

Syria’s Chemical Arms Destroyed, but Aid Effort Unravels

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Although no end to the war in Syria is in sight, remnants of international cooperation have survived. The U.S. and Russia have dismantled Syria’s chemical arms stockpile, and the U.N. is, in theory, committed to getting humanitarian aid into the country. This ugly modus vivendi is arguably a potential model for big-power cooperation in managing future conflicts. But is even this minimal consensus sustainable?

Thai Junta Using China to Leverage the West

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, a Thai army delegation visited China for talks on their security ties, which include joint military training. In an email interview, Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, discussed Thailand’s relations with China.

U.S. Planners Must Start Preparing for Strategic Disaster

By: Steven Metz | Column

The collapse of the Iraqi army as it faced an extremist onslaught shocked many Americans. In Washington, policymakers and military leaders scrambled to find an effective response and to understand how the disaster happened. In the flurry of finger-pointing, many missed the bigger issue: The slow reaction to Iraq's failure is one more manifestation of a deep flaw in the way Americans think about security.

As Ukraine Looks West, EU Seeks Russia Accommodation

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

After the Cold War, there was a sense of optimism that the Euro-Atlantic community could be expanded at little risk and without significant cost. Western policymakers did not consider the possibility of a Russia both hostile to Western expansion and with the strength to stymie it. Now the Ukraine end game is challenging assumptions of European security that have guided policymakers for the past two decades.

Bending Rules on Egypt Could Cost African Union Leverage on Transition

By: Hazel Haddon | Briefing

Last month, the African Union lifted its suspension of Egypt, which it imposed last year after the ouster of President Mohamed Morsi by Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, then head of the armed forces and now Egypt’s president. By bending the rules to readmit a powerful member and ignoring violations of its own doctrines, the AU may have lost its leverage over the very thing it hopes to influence: Egypt’s political transition.

More Despite Optics of Zhang’s Visit, Taiwan Remains Wary of China’s Intentions By: Joel Atkinson | Briefing Zhang Zhijun, director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, recently concluded a milestone four-day visit to Taiwan as the highest-ranking official from the People’s Republic of China ever to have visited the country. His mission was to show the Taiwanese public that Beijing has a softer, friendlier side, even as it still pursues unification. But it is extremely doubtful that Zhang won Taiwanese hearts and minds. The Roots of Beijing’s Hard Line on Hong Kong’s Pro-Democracy Protests By: The Editors | Trend Lines Hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators took to the streets of Hong Kong last week on the anniversary of its handover to China, and more than 500 were arrested. In an email interview, Simon Young, a law professor at Hong Kong University, placed the protests in the context of Hong Kong’s relationship with the mainland. Heavily Invested, China Cannot Escape the Iraq Powder Keg By: Emanuele Scimia | Briefing Like it did with the crisis in Ukraine, China is trying to keep out of the chaos in Iraq. But as Iraq’s government confronts the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, it will be hard for China to preserve a policy of noninterference. This time around, China cannot keep out of another sovereign nation’s internal affairs—until now a cornerstone of its diplomacy—given Beijing’s huge economic interests in Iraq. Xi’s Visit Brings No Breakthrough in China-South Korea Ties By: Richard Weitz | Column Last week’s China-South Korea summit confirmed the good relations between Beijing and Seoul under Presidents Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye. The two leaders announced ambitious economic goals and reconfirmed their opposition to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Nonetheless, no breakthrough occurred; until Beijing distances itself from Pyongyang, it cannot fundamentally elevate its relations with Seoul. Why Carbon Taxes, Despite Their Effectiveness, Have Hit Roadblocks By: The Editors | Trend Lines Australia's new senate is working to repeal the country's unpopular carbon tax. In an email interview, Shi-Ling Hsu, the Larson Professor of Law at the Florida State University College of Law and author of “The Case for a Carbon Tax: Getting Past our Hang-ups to Effective Climate Policy,” discussed the role of carbon taxes in national climate change policies. Without Clear Goals, Venezuela Sanctions Likely to Be Counterproductive By: Michael McCarthy | Briefing Congress is considering targeted sanctions against Venezuelan government officials for their handling of the country’s political unrest. Sanctions serve an important symbolic purpose: communicating universal support for human rights. But their utility needs to be assessed in terms of whether they can change the Venezuelan government’s relationship with the opposition and its heavy-handedness with protesters. Emotional Bonds, Strategic Interests Link Israel and Iraqi Kurds By: Frida Ghitis | Column It is no secret that the survival of Iraq within its current borders is very much in doubt. The battlefield victories of ISIS have revived the debate about a partition of the country into three states: one Sunni, one Shiite and one Kurdish. As Iraqis fret and international observers debate the country’s future, Israelis across the political spectrum have declared their support for an independent Kurdish state. Growing Threat of European Fighters in Syria Highlights Need for EU Cooperation By: Benoît Gomis | Briefing Almost all European Union member states have seen some of their citizens, often Muslims between the ages of 18-29, leave their countries to join the jihad against the Assad regime in Syria. There has been a range of national responses to stem the flow of European jihadi fighters, including prevention, management, monitoring, prosecution and reintegration measures. But the EU still has an important role to play. What Western Ukraine Stands to Gain From EU Association Agreement By: David Klion | Trend Lines Last month, Ukraine’s newly elected President Petro Poroshenko signed an association agreement with the European Union. While EU integration has long been unpopular in Ukraine’s contested east and in the Russian-annexed Crimea, the mood in the west is far more enthusiastic. On top of existing cultural connections, western Ukraine has much to gain from the association agreement’s promised reduction of tariffs.