WPR Articles July 14, 2014 - July 18, 2014

Climate Change Driving Farmer-Herder Conflict in Niger River Basin

By: Owen McAleer | Briefing

West Africa’s Niger River Basin has been the location of many high-profile conflicts in recent years. However, another form of conflict has also gripped the region: violence between farmers and herders. The two have long coexisted through traditional social arrangements for land and water use. But mounting environmental stress and institutional confusion have strained these ties and sparked violence.

In Iraq, Gulf Countries Must Confront ISIS Threat and Their Own Policies

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

In early July, Saudi Arabia moved 30,000 troops to its northern border with Iraq, apparently steeling itself against the advance of ISIS, which now calls itself the Islamic State. To many observers, it was a sign of Saudi Arabia reaping what it had sown. Private financial support to jihadi groups in Syria such as ISIS and others has been widely reported during Syria’s civil war, including from Saudi sources.

Israel-Hamas Conflict Locked In by Both Sides’ Strategic Assumptions

By: Steven Metz | Column

World attention is riveted by the ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas. The desperate enemies continue to pummel each other, seemingly seeking revenge rather than discernible political objectives. Whatever happens during the next few weeks will not be the finale of the two sides’ long conflict or even the beginning of the end. The reason lies with the strategic assumptions that drive the two antagonists.

Migrant or Refugee? U.N. Joins Tense U.S. Immigration Debate

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines

The rapid influx of migrants from Central America, many of them children, into the United States from Mexico has created political and logistical turmoil in Washington. The United Nations and others have pushed for the United States to treat at least some of these children as refugees, given that many are fleeing violence and deprivation back home. That could have a major impact on U.S. immigration policy.

U.S. Watches From Sidelines as Global Leaders Gather in Brazil

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

The U.S. missed out on a rare geopolitical opportunity this past week. Vice President Joe Biden, who has emerged in Barack Obama’s second term as more of an alter ego for the president on the international stage, should have taken a short trip to Brazil for the World Cup final. Sure, the U.S. team had already been eliminated, but Biden still had good reasons to drop in at the close of the tournament.

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Despite Risk of Escalation, West and Russia Keep Ukraine Crisis Limited

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Ukraine a model for the management of future international crises? At first glance, it looks like nothing of the sort. Kiev is in the middle of a bloody military campaign against pro-Russian rebels in the east, with more and more civilians caught in the crossfire. There is still a danger that this conflict could escalate further. Yet the most striking feature of the crisis is just how limited it remains.

Symbiotic Germany-China Relations Risk Becoming Dependency

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was in China last week, her seventh official trip to China since she took office in 2005, underscoring the growing importance of Berlin’s special relationship with Beijing. All signs indicate that symbiotic Germany-China relations will continue. However, Germany seems aware of potential cracks in their relationship—from human rights concerns to the risk of economic dependency.

China's Post-Mao Generation Still a Political Wild Card

By: Teresa Wright | Feature

In some respects, the political attitudes and behavior of China’s post-Mao generation diverge from those of their predecessors. They are more skeptical about China’s current political system, more supportive of liberal democratic ideals and more likely to engage in contentious collective actions. Yet in many other ways, their attitudes and behavior parallel those of older Chinese: They generally accept, and to a surprising degree even support, the political status quo led by the Chinese Communist Party.

China’s Post-1980s Generation, Between the Nation and the World

By: Stanley Rosen | Feature

China’s post-1980s generation—around 240 million people born between 1980 and 1990—has received greater media coverage in China than any previous generation; moreover, assessments of this generation have varied widely. Often called the “me generation,” they have also received high praise for their selflessness and altruism. Such a diversity of perceptions is not surprising since this generation clearly holds values that are far more contradictory than earlier generations.

For Afghanistan Election, After Kerry Deal Comes the Hard Part

By: Richard Weitz | Column

John Kerry’s shuttle diplomacy paved the way to resolving Afghanistan’s current election crisis, while helping to establish a potential framework to address its more-enduring problems. In so doing, Kerry’s effort fortified Afghanistan’s ability to overcome future political challenges with less U.S. intervention. Despite the successful deal-making, however, Afghanistan continues to face major challenges.

From Balinghou to Jiulinghou, China’s Millennials Come of Age

By: Robert L. Moore, Zhao Chang | Feature

The liberalization of the Chinese economy and the rise of the Internet and social media have led to a profound shift in social norms among Chinese born after 1980. From dating to consumerism to dissent, Chinese youth are poised to transform their society as they ascend to positions of influence. While the political direction of this generation is still unclear, and their online activities face routine censorship, their emphasis on individualism represents a major departure from the Mao era.

In Latin America Tour, China’s Xi Shows Maturing Approach to Region

By: Margaret Myers | Briefing

On July 14, Xi Jinping began his second official visit to Latin America as president of China. The visit corresponds with a new phase in China-Latin America relations. It is one that is still largely based on China’s interests in the region’s raw materials and markets, and in which Beijing retains the upper hand. But as China expands its global presence, its relationships have also matured considerably.

Regional Security Role Shields Mauritania’s Aziz From Pressure to Reform

By: Kal Ben Khalid | Briefing

Western governments welcomed the re-election of Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, last month. Yet they should not confuse Aziz, a vital counterterrorism partner, with the entire Mauritanian regime. His power has limits and depends on the backing of the military. Strengthening the military without monitoring delicate internal politics risks destabilizing an important regional security ally.

West African Ebola Outbreak Shows Difficulty of Coordinating Effective Response

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

An ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa, already the deadliest in the history of the disease, continues to spread, with 964 confirmed cases and 603 deaths. In an email interview, Jeremy Youde, associate professor of political science at the University of Minnesota Duluth, discussed the international response to the disease, led by the World Health Organization, in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

As U.S. Pivot Stalls, Developments in East Asia Speed Ahead

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Washington’s famed “Asia pivot” was postponed or at least slowed by the rash of crises in the Middle East over the past few years. But East Asia is not waiting for the U.S. Major countries in the region are actively jockeying for influence, assertively reassessing relations with their neighbors and generally stirring for what could become a significant realignment of power in the world’s fastest-growing region.
 

Climate Refugee Threat in Tropics Rises, but International Action Lags

By: Roxane Horton | Briefing

The Tropics will have to deal with increasing numbers of climate refugees as states disappear or become unlivable due to climate change, according to a recent report on the region. More droughts, rising sea levels and flooding could cause large migrations and destabilize fragile states in the region. The warning signs are already there, yet the international community has failed to respond with urgency.

Downing of MH17 in Eastern Ukraine Underscores Risks of Arming Syrian Rebels

By: David Klion | Trend Lines

In the downing of a Malaysian airliner over eastern Ukraine, all signs point to a surface-to-air missile launched by rebels who have been armed by Russia. There are sobering lessons here for the U.S. Part of the Obama administration’s hesitation to arm Syrian rebels was the fear that they would be unaccountable. If atrocities or accidents were committed with American weapons, the fallout could be disastrous.

Turkey’s Schizophrenic Opposition Unlikely to Defeat Erdogan and Unified AKP

By: Aaron Stein | Briefing

As Turkey prepares for its first direct presidential election, its two main secular opposition parties have jointly nominated Ekmelledin Ihsanoglu, a religious conservative candidate, to run against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the heavy favorite. However, the parties’ political schizophrenia have prevented them from agreeing to a coherent political platform that could unseat the unified AKP.