Can Russia Avoid Being Hit with More Sanctions?

Can Russia Avoid Being Hit with More Sanctions?

07/23/14

Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Security, Sanctions, Russia, Ukraine, Europe

Four indicators to consider.

Russia did not veto a United Nations Security Council resolution brought forward by Australia that calls for a thorough and unimpeded investigation into the shootdown of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. In a sop to Moscow, the draft did not specifically assign blame for the incident to Russia, even though the United States and other states have concluded that Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, perhaps even with direct Russian military assistance, brought down an airliner they mistook for a Ukrainian military transport with a sophisticated antiaircraft missile system—and, more importantly, gave the International Civil Aviation Organization a prominent role in handling the investigation, rather than leaving it solely with the competency of the sovereign government of Ukraine. The text, also calling for a cessation of military activities in the area of the crash also could be interpreted, at least by Moscow, as impacting the ability of the Ukrainian government under President Petro Poroshenko to continue with its "antiterrorism operation" in the area or calling for the cessation of its own military overflights of the region.

With the passage of this resolution, and with separatists on the ground apparently cooperating with investigators, the question is: has Russia done enough to ward off another round of sanctions? Given the anger in the Netherlands, it will be harder for those within the European Union who have continued to argue against imposing stronger penalties on Russia to hold the line, and even before the crash, the EU was already debating how many individuals and firms might come under new visa, asset and financial bans. But as the impact of the horror in the skies over eastern Ukraine begins to recede—and is replaced in the headlines with the clash between Israel and Hamas in Gaza—what next?

Several indicators to watch include:

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