A Two State Solution Is the Worst Solution—Except for All the Others
07/14/14
Albert B. Wolf
Security, Israel
Just as two-state solutions have failed, so have one-state solutions to the Arab-Israeli dispute.
Given the “facts on the ground,” Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett argue that Washington should recognize the two-state solution is dead and get on with burying it.
There are two problems with this. A one-state solution would be a
calamity for both sides. Furthermore, the so-called “facts on the
ground” as interpreted by the Leveretts hardly make it inevitable.
While the Kerry Framework collapsed, this does not make a one-state solution the next logical step. The historian Benny Morris points out that
just as two-state solutions have failed, so have one-state solutions to
the Arab-Israeli dispute. Rather than leading to a lasting peace, a
one-state solution would transform the former British mandate into
another Yugoslavia.
The
international system has been repeatedly characterized as anarchic,
where the life of states can be “nasty, brutish and short.” However,
warring groups have greater protection under anarchy than if they were
forced to live under the same roof.
Neither
side can credibly commit to the safety and security of the other. If a
single, binational state were created, the Palestinians would form the
majority. However, it is unlikely that the Jewish minority would be
able to trust such a government. A unitary state would demand the
Jewish minority disarm its military forces in exchange for a binational
one, leaving them vulnerable to future attacks. (Similarly, the
Palestinian side would have no recourse other than violence if the
Jewish minority decided to renege on its end of the bargain.)
Under
a two-state solution, both sides can mitigate the consequences of
receiving the sucker’s payoff should one of them decide to cheat on an
agreement. They can bolster their defenses, formcounter-balancing alliances, and raise (or hold onto) their national defense forces.
They can raise the costs of aggression by bringing in third-party
monitors. These are just a handful of the strategies states use to
ensure that their rivals comply with their agreements. While none is
foolproof, they afford greater protection for both sides than unilateral
disarmament and a one-state solution.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/two-state-solution-the-worst-solution%E2%80%94except-all-the-others-10872
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