WPR Articles March 31, 2014 - April 4, 2014

Global Insider: Saudi Shiite Protesters Face Long Odds Against Repression

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

U.S. President Barack Obama visited Saudi Arabia last week, where simmering dissent and repression in the Shiite-majority areas of the Sunni-dominated country continue to claim the lives of protesters and police three years after the Arab Spring. In an email interview, Stephane Lacroix, an associate professor at Sciences Po who studies authoritarianism and Islamic social movements, explained the status of Shiites in Saudi Arabia.

Global Insights: U.S.-South Korea Alliance Faces Growing Pains

By: Richard Weitz | Column

The South Korean and U.S. militaries have begun their annual major field training exercise, which will include the largest amphibious drill in Korea in decades. South Korean officials said the exercise underscores Seoul’s strategic significance to the U.S. Asia pivot. Beneath the surface calm, however, many troubled currents will buffet both the exercise and the overall bilateral military relationship.

In Unstable Middle East, Obama Moves to Reassure GCC States

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines

The Obama administration faces many severe challenges in the Middle East, ranging from preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon to brokering peace between Israelis and Palestinians. But President Barack Obama’s trip to the region last week was partly aimed at addressing a lower-profile problem—the emerging fissures in the traditional partnership between the U.S. and the six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

EU Takes Critical Next Step in Banking Union

By: Milton Ezrati | Briefing

The EU has at last proposed what it calls the “second pillar” of its banking union. The first pillar includes banking reform proposals aimed at reducing risk in the financial system. This next step proposes a mechanism should the authorities have to deal with bank failures. Matters on either proposal are far from settled. But there is no denying that Europe has taken significant steps toward financial security.

The Realist Prism: U.S. Unwilling to Give or Take on Ukraine

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

It was no surprise when last Sunday’s emergency meeting in Paris between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ended inconclusively. The U.S. is not prepared to cut a 19th-century-style deal with Moscow, but neither has it articulated a 21st-century response that would change Russia’s calculus. The U.S. seems unwilling to make a grand bargain or to reverse Russian gains.

More Full-Spectrum Diplomacy: Despite Expectations, Obama, Francis Status Quo Leaders By: Heather Hurlburt | Column Two men met at the end of a ceremonial walk down a long corridor last week. One of these men carried the hopes of millions on his shoulders: His selection to high office reflected a new openness to those long-discriminated against and raised global hopes for a power whose image had been damaged—a power despised but still desired, often in the same breath, around the world. The other man was Barack Obama. With Eye on China, India Moves to Expand Indian Ocean Maritime Influence By: Saurav Jha | Briefing In March, India announced that Mauritius and Seychelles had expressed an interest in joining the trilateral maritime security cooperation arrangement between India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Should they join, it would help consolidate a maritime domain awareness network in the island states of the Indian Ocean Region where India has historically had influence and seeks to monitor Chinese movements. Crimea Highlights Risks, Uncertainties of Georgia’s Turn to West By: Michael Cecire | Briefing In the wake of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Georgia appears isolated and exposed. Just over a month ago, the context looked remarkably different. Georgia had managed to arrest the acrimony of the period following its own 2008 war with Russia in an effort to reduce prospects for renewed conflict. But the fragile sense of security painstakingly crafted by Tbilisi now seems to have been shattered. Cuba’s New Foreign Investment Law Is a Bet on the Future By: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing The new foreign investment law Cuba’s National Assembly passed unanimously last Saturday is a key component of President Raul Castro’s program to “update” the economy. The law offers better terms to foreign investors, with the aim of boosting direct foreign investment in Cuba’s chronically capital-poor economy. But important aspects of Cuba’s FDI landscape—including the U.S. embargo—have not changed. Global Insider: Ecuador Local Elections Show Correa’s Weakness More Than Opposition’s Strength By: The Editors | Trend Lines In late February, Ecuador’s municipal elections yielded gains for the opposition in an apparent setback for President Rafael Correa. In an email interview, Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue and adjunct professor of Latin American politics at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, explained why the opposition made gains and what’s next for Correa. Strategic Horizons: Saving America’s Strategic Visionaries By: Steven Metz | Column Everyone knows that the U.S. needs to shrink its defense budget; the challenge is doing so intelligently. Without attention to the long-term effects of the downsizing, the rush to cut could stifle creativity and fail to cultivate strategic visionaries. The net effect would be pawning America’s future security to make today’s budget. Yet there are many signs that such short-sighted cuts are already underway. Erdogan’s Kurdish Electoral Gamble Will Reverberate in Turkey and Iraq By: Hannes Cerny | Briefing Turkey’s ruling AKP under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan racked up an astounding victory in municipal elections last Sunday, despite last year’s civil unrest and an ongoing corruption scandal. The AKP’s dominance has many political and socioeconomic causes, but in Turkey’s Kurdish southeast, Erdogan could count on one unexpected campaigner: the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region, Massoud Barzani. South Korea Buy a Bright Spot for Troubled F-35 Program By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines South Korea recently announced that it will purchase the F-35 fighter jet as part of an ambitious plan to modernize its air defenses. Japan also plans to purchase the F-35, meaning that the two countries most central to the Obama administration’s Asia rebalance will be using the same platform. This is good news for a fighter that has become the most expensive defense acquisition program in history. World Citizen: Obama Visit Offers Glimpse Into Saudi Arabia’s Future By: Frida Ghitis | Column When President Barack Obama arrived in Saudi Arabia last Friday, he briefly opened a window into the closest circles of power in Riyadh. One of the most striking images was that of Saudi King Abdullah breathing with the aid of an oxygen tank. Although the king appeared animated and energetic, the image of ill health betrayed the urgency of a royal succession process that has already gone into overdrive. As Afghanistan Selects New President, Its Insurgency May Change Too By: Kathy Gilsinan | Briefing On Saturday, Afghans will vote in the first round of an election that, if all goes well, will result in the first democratic transfer of presidential power in Afghanistan’s history. The elections will also be the first of the post-Taliban era to be secured entirely by Afghan forces. But for all its historic gravity, in some respects the poll will not represent much of a break with Afghanistan’s past.