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Calling Putin's Bluff

Apr 12, 2014 03:00 am | F. Stephen Larrabee, Peter A. Wilson

F. Stephen Larrabee

Peter A. Wilson

President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea caught Western governments by surprise and has sparked fears of a new Cold War. While it is too soon to know the long-run impact of the Ukrainian crisis on European and global security, the annexation of Crimea has dealt a major blow to Western hopes for the creation of a “Europe whole and free.”
The annexation challenges two basic assumptions on which U.S. policy toward Europe in the post-Cold War era has been based: (1) that Europe is essentially stable and secure, freeing the United States to focus its attention on other areas, particularly Asia and the Middle East, and (2) that Russia had become a potential partner rather than an adversary.
The annexation of Crimea has called into question both of these assumptions. The United States can no longer assume that Europe will be stable and that Russia will not be an adversary. As a result, Washington needs to rethink critical aspects of its policy toward Europe and Russia.
Putin’s World
At the same time, the annexation has highlighted the degree to which Putin’s worldview differs from that of Western leaders. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel pointedly remarked during the Crimean crisis, Putin is “living in a different world.” While most Western leaders do not share this mindset, they need to understand it and take it into account when dealing with Putin.
Putin is driven by 19^th century concepts of geopolitics and great-power competition. In this world, sovereign states are the key actors. Conflict and competition are inevitable, because sovereign states seek to maximize their power. Hard power is the coin of the realm.
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