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A Melancholy Perspectiv
Summary
The time when Assad might have been defeated by a truly inept opposition leadership and fragmented rebel movement has passed.
Many have argued that the collapse in mid-February of the Geneva
II talks aimed at bringing an end to the Syrian conflict left the
country hostage to an enduring military stalemate. But as the conflict
grinds on into its fourth year, the stalemate is anything but static.
The prospects that a viable new diplomatic framework will emerge to calm the situation are now more remote than ever. It seems equally remote that the U.S. policy on Syria will become more assertive. In the absence of those two key external factors, the course and direction of the conflict through the rest of 2014 and well into next year will be determined by incremental changes in the military, political, and economic spheres inside Syria.
The prospects that a viable new diplomatic framework will emerge to calm the situation are now more remote than ever. It seems equally remote that the U.S. policy on Syria will become more assertive. In the absence of those two key external factors, the course and direction of the conflict through the rest of 2014 and well into next year will be determined by incremental changes in the military, political, and economic spheres inside Syria.
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