WPR Articles 13 May 2013 - 17 May 2013 Diplomatic Fallout: A More Hawkish Europe Gives U.S. Second Thoughts By: Richard Gowan | Column Does the U.S. genuinely want Europe to police its geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. The peace conference announced last week was a setback for Britain and France’s more hawkish approach and reflects a paradox: While the U.S. has frequently called for Europe to take responsibility for its own security, Washington is often nervous about the results. Global Insider: Barzani Set to Continue Dominance of Iraqi Kurdish Politics By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Michael M. Gunter, a professor of political science at Tennessee Technological University who focuses on Kurdish issues, discussed the state of internal Kurdish politics. Russia Tries to Manage Arab Awakening From the Outside By: Dmitri Trenin | Briefing Like virtually everyone else, Moscow was surprised by the groundswell of change that began in the Arab world in early 2011. The present “Arab Awakening,” Russian experts opine, may take decades and is likely to transform the region. The Russian leadership has two main worries: U.S. involvement in nominally sovereign countries, and the potential of spillover from the Arab Spring onto the Russian neighborhood. China-India Border Incident Highlights Uncertainties in Bilateral Relations By: Iain Mills | Briefing China's recent incursion into Indian territory along their disputed border in eastern Kashmir brings to the fore the unpredictability of Chinese foreign policy implementation and Beijing's frequent recourse to low-level aggression. Despite a general trend toward deepening cooperation between China and India, the incident lowers hopes that China's new leadership will clear up uncertainty in bilateral relations. The Realist Prism: China the Likely Winner if U.S. Intervenes in Syria By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria.

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Guinea Inches Toward Stability

By: Dane F. Smith | Briefing

A series of violent incidents between opposition protesters and security forces in Conakry have highlighted the challenges still impeding Guinea’s political transition since the death in 2008 of longtime leader Lansana Conte. Despite progress toward stability, Guinea lacks a functioning legislature, is beset by ethnic tension and is stifled by corruption, leaving the outcome of the transition uncertain.

Sharif Victory Unlikely to Change Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Priorities

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is beginning talks to form a new government in Pakistan after winning the country’s general elections held over the weekend.

After Success: Poverty Beyond the MDGs

By: Claire Melamed | Feature

The U.N. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have now been part of the global conversation for nearly 15 years, and have proved to be a popular way to think about global development. As the 2015 deadline for achieving the MDGs looms, the discussion over what the next set of global ambitions should be is throwing into sharp relief some of the big changes that have happened in the world of global development policy, and in the world more generally, since the 1990s.

Global Insights: Sharif’s Victory Offers U.S. Opportunity to Reset Pakistan Ties

By: Richard Weitz | Column

The victory by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan’s national elections offers the U.S. an opportunity to develop and execute a strategy for improving the troubled relationship with Islamabad. Although the Obama administration has defined detailed goals for what it would like to achieve in Afghanistan, as well as strategies for attaining them, U.S. officials have yet to do the same for Pakistan.

The Politics of Poverty: South America's Conditional Cash Transfers

By: Michael Shifter, Cameron Combs | Feature

Over the past decade in South America, sound policymaking and deepening concern with social disparities have resulted in dramatic reductions in the levels of poverty. However, no matter how well designed and intentioned social programs might be, they are most likely to be sustainable if carried out within a context of effective democratic institutions. In this regard, political and institutional factors are central in accounting for the relative success of social policy experiments throughout the region.

Trading Up: The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Poverty

By: L. Alan Winters | Feature

Does international trade liberalization reduce poverty? The question is an important and relevant one. It was high on the agenda in the late-1990s and after a decade or so of quiescence it is starting to worry policymakers again. Fortunately, it permits a fairly definite answer, one that surprises many people. While there clearly are exceptions, the answer is “in the long run and on average, almost always, yes, trade liberalization reduces poverty.”

After Rios Montt Conviction, Guatemala’s Judicial Sector Still Needs Support

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

Last week, Efrain Rios Montt, the former Guatemalan dictator who ruled the country during the most violent years of its civil war, was found guilty of crimes against humanity and genocide and sentenced to 80 years in prison.

Strategic Horizons: Benghazi and the Myth of the Invincible U.S. Military

By: Steven Metz | Column

The controversy over whether the Obama administration lied about the September 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, will consume Washington for some time, ultimately influencing the way the U.S. military responds to crises. But while the emotion associated with the inability to stop the attack is understandable, it may push the military to take excessive risks in future crises.

As U.S. Pivots, Britain Hedges Its Military Bets

By: Julian Lindley-French | Briefing

As the British armed forces rebuild after more than a decade of sustained military operations, the U.S.-U.K. strategic relationship has come under intense scrutiny. While London remains committed to working alongside the U.S., there is deep concern that Washington has become a less than reliable partner. Were it not for the political and economic turmoil in the eurozone, U.S.-U.K. relations might be in crisis.

Global Insider: Cuba Sends Doctors to Brazil as Bilateral Ties Grow

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, John M. Kirk, a professor at Canada’s Dalhousie University, explained the history of Cuba’s medical diplomacy and its importance to Cuba’s slowly reforming economy.

World Citizen: In Spain, a Turn to 'None of the Above'

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The people of Spain are now living through the fifth year of a deep economic recession, experiencing a level of unemployment that would have seemed inconceivable before the bottom fell out. But despite countless protests and furious debate, the Spanish are becoming disillusioned with all the options before them. As the recession lingers and the hardships intensify, the answer increasingly is “none of the above.”

U.S. Delay on Anti-Nuclear Terror Measures Hinders Global Efforts

By: Miles Pomper, Kingston Reif | Briefing

Two factors, among others, help explain the government’s decision to charge Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev with the use of a WMD: The charge is seen by prosecutors as relatively easy to prove, and it can be punished by the death penalty. This highlights the irrelevance of a dispute in the U.S. Senate that is holding up important new anti-nuclear and anti-radiological terrorism legislation.