WPR Articles 27 Oct 2012 - 03 Nov 2012

To Determine Strategy, U.S. Must Define Its Global Role

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

With the U.S. presidential campaign entering the home stretch, it is evident that foreign policy will not play a major role in the election outcome. Neither candidate has offered a vision of how America should engage with the world to advance American interests in such a way that the benefits are widely shared. In short, how will the U.S. exercise global leadership in a world that increasingly has other options?

Paradigm Shift: The End of Oil Supply Crises?

By: Steve Yetiv | Briefing

The American public's deep-rooted fear that any disruption of Middle Eastern oil supplies could trigger a U.S. recession is historically based: Past recessions have been caused or accelerated by such crises. Contrary to received wisdom, however, the chance of an oil crisis has decreased substantially since the 1970s due to a paradigm shift in global oil security that has gone largely unnoticed.

Strategic Horizons: Al-Qaida's Comeback

By: Steven Metz | Column

Rarely a week passes without a grim new article, op-ed or newspaper story warning us that al-Qaida is mounting a comeback. In a sense, it is true. However, any assessment of the current nature and extent of the al-Qaida threat must take into account the strategic costs of dealing with it. Sound strategy is not simply quashing enemies, but doing so in a way that the security gains are worth the strategic costs.

World Citizen: Democracy and the Eternal President

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

In recent years, democratic legitimacy has become a requirement for wielding power in an increasing number of countries. Populations that endured years of dictatorship now demand the right to elect their leaders. In a growing number of cases, however, politicians with authoritarian tendencies have found a way to game the system, extending their rule, while preserving their claim to constitutional lawfulness.

U.S. Still Needs Radio for Public Diplomacy in the Internet Age

By: Tom Woods | Briefing

The Obama administration's shift away from U.S. international radio broadcasting in favor of more high-tech media outlets overlooks the vital role that radio still plays in many parts of the world, including the United States, as Hurricane Sandy has illustrated. In particular, highly reliable and modern radio broadcasts may still be the best bet to reach behind the electronic curtain imposed by dictators.

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Mexico's Calderon Leaves Behind a Healthier Pemex, Oil Industry

By: Jeremy Martin | Briefing

Critical assessments of Mexico’s oil industry in general and of its state-owned oil company, Pemex, in particular are commonplace, often with good reason: Both face many challenges in overcoming the historical legacies that have long undermined their performance. Nevertheless, when President Felipe Calderon leaves office on Dec. 1, he will be leaving both in better shape than when his presidency began.

Global Insider: Meager Presence in Belarus Leaves EU Little Leverage

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Jana Kobzova, a policy fellow and coordinator of the Wider Europe Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, discussed EU policy toward Belarus.

Ukraine's Parliamentary Elections Bring Further Dysfunction

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

The Party of Regions, the governing party of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, is on track to retain control over parliament after claiming victory in elections held over the weekend.

Global Insights: Obama, Lee Partnership Solidifies U.S.-South Korea Ties

By: Richard Weitz | Column

Though 2010 was a bad year for inter-Korean relations, it was a good one for the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Washington stood solidly behind Seoul following a series of North Korean provocations, helping to fortify bilateral ties. As a result, at a moment when at least one of the presidential administrations is certain to leave office soon, relations between the two allies are the best they have been in decades.

Global Insider: Holding the Line on Illegal Ivory Trade

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Esmond Martin, an independent wildlife trade consultant, discussed the ivory trade regime.

Niger, Nigeria Step Up Cooperation Against Boko Haram

By: Jacob Zenn | Briefing

On Oct. 18, the foreign ministers of Niger and Nigeria signed a defense pact establishing joint border patrols along their 930-mile border. The pact also envisions infrastructure projects, including road construction and rail links, as well as renewed efforts to re-demarcate the border. As President Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger put it in announcing the deal, from now on, "whoever attacks Niger, attacks Nigeria."

Australia Seeks a Role in the Asian Century

By: Roxane Horton | Briefing

Australia is officially seeking to shore up its role in the Asia-Pacific regional order, following the U.S. in pivoting toward a fuller embrace of Asia. A government strategy document released over the weekend, “Australia in the Asian Century,” sets out an all-encompassing plan for a future with deeper and more profitable relationships between Australia and its closest regional partners.

Kuwait's Opposition Crosses the Government's Red Lines

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

On Monday, Musallam al-Barrak, a prominent opposition leader in Kuwait, was arrested after making comments critical of Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, ruler of the Persian Gulf state.

New Openness to Nuclear Trade Buoys India-Australia Ties

By: Yogesh Joshi | Briefing

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s recent visit to New Delhi gave India-Australia relations a major boost. In a speech at the end of the trip, Gillard stressed the “compelling” need for a robust bilateral relationship. Diplomatic niceties notwithstanding, the one issue with the potential to radically transform India-Australia relations is trade in nuclear materials, especially uranium.

The Realist Prism: Obama, Romney Vie for Term Full of Challenges

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election next week, the man who governs from January 2013 to January 2017 will face several challenges during his term in office. While we don’t know who the next American president will be, we do know that he will have to make difficult decisions, in a landscape that could very well be dramatically different than what Washington has long been used to.

Global Insider: China Rethinks Nuclear Program After Fukushima

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Yun Zhou, a postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard University Belfer Center's Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program, discussed China’s nuclear energy program.