Update from WPR: Articles 04/02/12 - 10/02/12

WPR Articles 04 Feb 2012 - 10 Feb 2012

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The New Rules: Slouching Toward Great-Power War

By: Thomas P.M. Barnett | Column

Arguably the greatest strategic gift offered by America to the world has been our consistent willingness to maintain a high entry barrier to the “market” that is great-power war. However, a case can be made that the greatest threat to this component of global stability is now a U.S. national security establishment intent on pressing the boundaries of this heretofore sacrosanct responsibility.

German Foreign Policy: The Temptation of Going Alone

By: Ulrike Guérot | Feature

Germany’s handling of the sovereign debt crisis gripping the eurozone has led some to wonder whether Germany has lost interest in Europe, or in the role it has historically played in the European Union. But does Germany really believe it has other, global options for a more unilateral foreign policy? The answer is clearly “no,” but it is a no that has shades of gray. German foreign policy is no longer unambiguous, to say the least.

Economic Clouds Darken Turkey's Diplomatic Horizon in the Middle East

By: Nader Habibi | Briefing

Turkey’s diplomatic re-engagement with the Middle East during the past decade not only coincided with a period of strong economic growth at home, but was closely interconnected with it. Now, there are some indications that Turkey’s economy might be heading for difficult times in 2012, raising the question of how an economic downturn could affect Turkey’s active foreign policy in the region.

Over the Horizon: The A-10 Battle and Military Turf Wars

By: Robert Farley | Column

The four-decade-and-counting saga of the A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft continued last week, when the Air Force announced it would cut five A-10 squadrons to reduce costs. Defense wonks met the announcement with a storm of criticism, but little surprise. The fight over the A-10 represents not so much a disagreement over technology, but rather a bureaucratically driven dispute over the nature of warfare.

The Realist Prism: Resetting the U.S.-Russia Reset

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

After a period of healthier ties following the much-heralded reset, U.S.-Russia relations appear to be deteriorating. Nor does the immediate future bode well for "resetting the reset." But does this mean that the U.S.-Russia relationship is doomed to fall back to a more confrontational posture, as occurred in 2007 and 2008, when analysts were warning of a "new Cold War"? That depends on several factors.

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U.S. Energy Security, not Politics, Should Drive Keystone XL Debate

By: Jason Marczak | Briefing

Occasional threats to global oil supply are one reason why U.S. energy security requires “an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy,” as President Barack Obama recently put it. Though this strategy must include alternative energy sources, the U.S. will continue to depend on oil for its energy needs. Here, Canada can play an even-greater role in maintaining the stability of the U.S. energy picture.

The Paradoxes of German Economic Performance

By: Jeremy Leaman | Feature

The European Union’s stuttering economic recovery and ongoing debt crisis have called attention to the significant economic and commercial imbalances that exist within the union. In particular, Germany has been pointed to as a model of fiscal and economic governance. However, the nature of the recent German recovery raises several questions about the overall performance of the country’s political economy and the particular contribution of labor market arrangements to that performance.

Global Insights: Russia's UNSC Syria Veto a Calculated Gamble

By: Richard Weitz | Column

Russia has adopted a surprisingly firm stance regarding the ongoing violent crackdown on domestic opposition in Syria. Despite facing a solid bloc of Western and developing nations calling for strong action against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow defiantly vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution this weekend. But in winning this battle at the U.N., Russia risks losing the war in Syria.

Germany's New Role in Europe

By: Daniela Schwarzer | Feature

As a result of changes in the European Union’s functioning resulting from both the Lisbon Treaty and the effects of the sovereign debt crisis, Germany has become the most influential member state of the union, at the center of the debate over the shifting power relationships in the EU. But does Germany still want the EU? How far does Germany’s European commitment go? These questions are among those most often heard when it comes to the changing politics of European integration.

Should China Abandon its Non-Interference Policy?

By: Iain Mills | Briefing

China's policy of non-interference in the affairs of other nations fails to protect its expanding overseas interests and has caused a trust deficit with regard to China’s intentions at an intergovernmental level. This raises the question of how long the non-interference policy can be sustained, and whether Chinese interests would be better served by abandoning it for a less rigid position.

World Citizen: The Kuwait Model for Arab Kingdoms?

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The emirate of Kuwait has managed to maintain a measure of stability under a system that combines a strong monarchy and an elected parliament. That system could gradually become a model for other states in the Gulf region as they seek to accommodate popular demands. But first, it has to survive the continuing turbulence of the Arab uprisings -- and the impact of the country’s own recent elections.

U.S.-India Relations: Case-by-Case Basis, With No Guarantees

By: Saurav Jha | Briefing

The United States' oft-expressed desire to support India’s emergence as a great power in fact reveals the distance that still separates the two. The U.S. struggles with India’s non-alignment impulses, while India sees relations in a globalized era as depending on balance of interests, not balance of power. This differing approach to globalization prevents the two from fully consolidating relations.

Central Europe and the EU Fiscal Compact: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

By: David Armitage | Briefing

At last week’s summit, European Union leaders adopted the latest chapter of Europe’s paper trail: the “Treaty on Stability, Co-ordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union,” or in short, the new fiscal compact. While some have already declared success, few are focused on what this compact means for the EU’s newest member states in Central Europe.

From Trend Lines:

Global Insider: U.S. Military Satellite Partnership Goes Wideband and Global

Sudan Kidnappings Raise the Heat on China Over High-Risk Investments

Global Insider: UNASUR Defense Agencies Search for Relevance

Afghanistan to Highlight Challenges of Collaboration Between Pentagon and CIA

Global Insider: Russian Peacekeeping Grows With Russian Self-Identity