WPR Articles 07 May 2011 - 13 May 2011

Europe Must Turn to China for Energy Security

By: Matthew Hulbert and Christian Brutsch | Briefing

The Libyan debacle has been a wakeup call for those thinking that the European Union has a grip on its neighborhood or that it might one day become a serious geopolitical actor. That will have an impact on the upstream energy landscape around Europe. Instead of trying to attract producer states by offering a security guarantee that the EU can't provide, Brussels should work from the demand side of the pipeline.

Syria is Turkey's Litmus Test in the New Middle East

By: Joshua W. Walker | Briefing

The Turks have not been so actively involved in the Middle East since the days of the Ottoman Empire. But Turkey's leaders have found it difficult to balance the region's competing interests while staying above the fray. With protests continuing in Syria, Turkey's closest neighbor, Damascus is where Ankara's regional role will either be made or broken. Syria is the litmus test of Turkey's future role in the new Middle East.

India Should Continue to Engage With Pakistan

By: Neeta Lal | Briefing

Pakistan's alleged role in shielding Osama bin Laden has driven calls to modify India's outreach initiative toward its South Asian neighbor. It has also resurrected the question dogging Indian policymakers since the 2008 Mumbai massacre: Should India continue to engage with Pakistan even though Islamabad cultivates terrorist groups as a strategic option and harbors some that target India itself?  

The Realist Prism: Bin Laden's Death Leaves Russia With Strategic Void

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

Much has been written about the potential impact that the demise of Osama bin Laden and the possible disintegration of al-Qaida will have on U.S. foreign policy. But bin Laden's death could also change the foreign policy calculus of other states, notably Russia, which for the past 10 years has promulgated its own version of the global war on terror as a central organizing principle for international affairs.

Iran's Leadership Struggle Reveals Secular-Islamist Split

By: Jamsheed K. Choksy | Briefing

At the heart of the widening leadership dispute in Iran is President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's increasing independence from the system of "guardianship of the (religious) jurist," on which Iran's Shiite theocracy is based. In essence, Iran's political battle is over two possible paths ahead: a continuation of the Islamist system of governance or the emergence of a more secular nation with elected, nonclerical officials.

The New Rules: For U.S., Abandoning the Middle East not a Solution

By: Thomas P.M. Barnett | Column

In the aftermath of Osama bin Laden's death, some are encouraging the U.S. to reconsider its strategic relationship with the Middle East. But there is no escaping the responsibility of helping the Arab world integrate itself with globalization in the years ahead. That process will create great instabilities whose only solution lies in the world's great powers accepting even greater interdependencies with the region.

China Needs Greater U.S. Support for Evolving Yuan

By: Iain Mills | Briefing

While the Chinese yuan's increased convertibility and value against the dollar may suggest China is finally getting serious about rationalizing the value of the yuan, recent measures are geared toward internationalization rather than genuine liberalization, and China's economy is still decades away from being able to support a free-floating currency. It is in the U.S. interest to support Beijing in this transition.

Global Insights: U.S., NATO Ponder Tactical Nuclear Arms Control With Russia

By: Richard Weitz | Column

U.S. and NATO officials are currently deciding what specific arms control measures they will seek regarding the remaining tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. Although NATO has linked further reductions in the alliance's arsenal to reciprocal Russian reductions, NATO governments must determine what objectives to seek, what negotiating forum to use and how to verify any agreement regarding these weapons.

On Multi-Role Fighters, Europe Offers India More Value Than U.S.

By: Saurav Jha | Briefing

India's selection of European aircraft as finalists for the multi-role fighter jet tender has been seen by many U.S. observers as a snub to the Indo-U.S. strategic partnership, despite the Indian government's great efforts to frame the decision as a purely technical one. In reality, the Indian decision reflects the fact that, in this particular case, Europe offers a superior value proposition than the United States.

Over the Horizon: Symbol and Utility in the Great Carrier Debate

By: Robert Farley | Column

Driven in part by a recent article in Proceedings, the magazine of the United States Naval Institute, the debate over the nature and utility of aircraft carriers has once again erupted between naval analysts. But while this discussion has thus far been useful and productive, it sidesteps some of the most important ways in which aircraft carriers matter for national defense and national power.

World Citizen: In Latin America, WikiLeaks Reveals No Real Surprises

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Five months after WikiLeaks broke the latch on its treasure trove and started scattering the contents across the globe, the impact has proven far different than what Washington feared. A look at what WikiLeaks has wrought in one region in particular, Latin America, shows that more than harming or even embarrassing the U.S., the leaked documents have embarrassed politicians in other countries.

Reflections on the Future of the Arab Spring

By: Klara Bilgin | Briefing

Is the Arab Spring over? Have we reached a turning point where no new revolutions are likely? And what do post-revolutionary developments in Tunisia and Egypt suggest about the pace and prospects of their political opening and possible democratization? In trying to answer these questions, the two waves of democratization in Eastern Europe and Eurasia provide useful analytical comparisons.

Egypt's Foreign Policy Shift Could Face Saudi Roadblock

By: Max Strasser | Briefing
Following the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt seems poised to pursue a more independent foreign policy in the Middle East. But as Cairo prepares to change course from Mubarak's unblinking adherence to the region's pro-U.S. bloc, Saudi Arabia can be expected to do its best to prevent both the current military leadership and any future civilian government from disrupting the status quo.