Dangerous Fallout from Libya’s Implosion

Dangerous Fallout from Libya’s Implosion

Christopher Boucek
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace -
Commentary, March 9, 2011

 While there are calls in Washington for a military response to the regime’s assaults on rebels trying to oust Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi—including a no-fly zone—the real threat to U.S. security is flying under the radar. The fate of once-jailed Islamist fighters who are now at large should be among Washington’s top concerns. Islamists freed by Qaddafi and those who escaped from prison during the uprising are now able to operate in an environment of evaporating state control, abundant small arms caches, and under-guarded stocks of chemical warfare agents—posing a significant challenge to the Obama administration.

The deteriorating security situation in Libya carries clear risks for the United States and its interests. Many Islamist militants—including those who have been involved in violence in Libya and abroad—have either been intentionally released by the Libyan government in the last few years or escaped from custody in the early days of the uprising. A large portion of those released benefitted from a haphazard and incomplete state-run rehabilitation program, while others were freed in an ill-conceived concession intended to reduce tensions before the outbreak of fighting.  

Current events in Libya cast serious doubt on the willingness of former detainees to respect or abide by the conditions of their release. They may no longer feel obliged to keep up their end of the bargain with a weakened government—a government many never accepted as legitimate in the first place. Violent Islamists have long sought to bring down the hated Qaddafi regime—just as they have looked to topple other “apostate” governments in Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen—and some may now see this as their best opportunity to overthrow the government. And amid weakening state authority in Libya, violent extremists will find fertile ground. After all, it’s not in failed states where violent extremists flourish, but in weak and failing states. 

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• Arab Leaders to Discuss No-Fly Zone in Libya (foxnews.com)
• Will Muammar Qaddafi Escape Libya In This Private Jet? (businessinsider.com)
• The Battle for Libya (nybooks.com)