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Libya's oil production has been reduced by around 75 percent as the country slides into all-out civil war, with rebels fighting Moammar Gadhafi's beleaguered regime holding the eastern oil fields and export terminals.
The country normally produces 1.6 million barrels per day, 1.1 million bpd for export.
All the foreign companies that ran Libya's oil industry have fled and production is likely to dwindle further without their expertise. With Oman, Algeria and Yemen facing growing unrest, it's possible that global output could fall further.
"Our concern is that the Iranians will take advantage of the situation, this new-found obsession with protests, to encourage Shiite minorities throughout the entire western rim of the Persian Gulf to rebel against their (Sunni) political masters," observed Peter Zeihan, vice president of analysis at the global security consultancy Stratfor.
He identified three key producing basins where Shiites form the majority population - Ramailah in southern Iraq, the Bergen field in southern Kuwait and the giant Ghawar field in eastern Saudi Arabia, the largest in the world.
"To this point," Zeihan said, "there has not been a single documented case of protesters attacking a piece of energy infrastructure anywhere in North Africa or the wider Middle East.
"But the rules of the game have changed. We're now less concerned about popular protest than we are about the Iranians instigating events. Taking out an oil competitor is a perfectly legitimate course of action from their point of view.
"And in this case, we've got roughly 10 million bpd at potential risk."
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