The fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt calls for a rethink of American strategy in the Middle East. Egypt has been the keystone of a set of interlocking policies on Palestine, on the suppression of Islamist movements, and on resisting the spread of Iranian influence. The American organized and lead concert includes the Arab triad of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. A tacit member is Israel. This improbable coalition is cemented by convergent national interests as each government defines them. Paramount is regime survival. The three Arab autocracies live in dread of popular uprisings that could drive them from power. Discontent varies in intensity – being highest in Egypt as now has been made manifest. Their common fear is fundamentalist Islamist movements, i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, analogous diverse formations in Jordan, and al-Qaeda in Arabia the most deadly threat to the House of Saud. Any development in the Middle East that is seen as strengthening those forces, or even instability that could incubate them, deepens anxiety. Firm control at home and bolstering the status quo throughout the region are viewed as the keys to regime survival.
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