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Forging a Four-Sided Afghan Deal
The Afghanistan war strategy review released December 16 hews to President Barack Obama's pledge of last year and aims to begin "a responsible" drawdown of U.S. troops from the country in July 2011. However, a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan hinges on convincing the Taliban that the United States is not planning to pull out the bulk of is troops next year, says CFR's Stephen Biddle. Biddle notes that because of Obama's pledge last year, many in the region became convinced the United States was ready to go home. "Once the Taliban decides that the 2011 date doesn't mean that the Americans will pack their suitcases and go home, it isn't going to lead them to run up the white flag and surrender," says Biddle, "but it very well may lead them to say, 'Well, let's see what they have to offer us, and let's talk about some kind of a deal.' That, I think, is a road to a settlement." Biddle says the only possible sustainable deal in Afghanistan is one that would be hammered out with the Afghan, U.S., and Pakistani governments, and elements of the Taliban.
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