U.S.-RUSSIAN SUMMIT: KYRGYZSTAN REVERSES ON MANAS

U.S.-RUSSIAN SUMMIT: KYRGYZSTAN REVERSES ON MANAS



Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev on July 7 signed into law a deal that will
allow the United States to maintain access to Kyrgyzstan's Manas Air Base. The
status of the base has been reversed several times over the past few years as
Kyrgyzstan used the base to extract concessions from both Russia and the United
States, who each have strategic interests in Central Asia. The July 7 deal
reverses a February decision to evict U.S. forces from Manas. There is no
question that Russia played a key role in this decision, as Russia maintains a
profound level of influence in Kyrgyzstan, and the decision was clearly timed to
coincide with the meetings between Russian leaders and U.S. President Barack
Obama.

Under the new deal with Kyrgyzstan, the United States will extend a package
worth $180 million, including an annual rental fee and several tens of millions
of dollars worth of infrastructure investment. On top of that, the United States
will reportedly pay $60 million worth of signing bonuses. In exchange, the
United States will be allowed to transport supplies through the base to
Afghanistan to support the mission there.

Manas is a hub for C-17 transports to Afghanistan, and is the lead aerial
refueling location for U.S. and NATO efforts there. Although U.S. military
officials have repeatedly stated that the base in Manas is not critical to
operations, the loss of the air transport route into Afghanistan would certainly
be a logistical nightmare. With supply transport routes through Pakistan
undergoing increased stress and instability, alternate routes into Afghanistan
are both strategically critical and difficult to come by.

Russia's interest in the base is multifaceted. In the short term, it serves as a
pressure point on the United States during Russia's resurgence onto the
international stage. The base also plays into Russia's own concerns, as Russia
does not want to see a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan any more than the United
States does, although Russia is in no way interested in committing its own
scarce military resources to the task.

In the long term, however, Russia would dearly like to see U.S. operations out
of Central Asia. One of Russia's clearest imperatives is to secure complete
control over its near abroad. This is a goal that most certainly does not
include U.S. military assets being based just south of Russia's border, in a
former Soviet state.

These interests are driving the July 7 decision to allow the United States to
keep its use of the base at Manas. Russia can afford to offer up the base to the
United States, secure in the knowledge that the concession can always be revoked
should relations turn sour or other interests take precedence.

Copyright 2009 Stratfor.