IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS: A BASELINE ASSESSMENT

IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS: A BASELINE ASSESSMENT

A new report from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2009_rpt/iran.html) discusses what is known about Iran's potential for developing nuclear weapons, as well as what is suspected or imagined.

"There is no sign that Iran's leaders have ordered up a bomb," the report notes. "But unclassified interviews... make clear that Iran has moved closer to completing the three components for a nuclear weapon--fissile material, warhead design and delivery system," the report stated. Resolving suspicions about the potential military aspects of Iran's nuclear program "will be one of the most difficult [issues] confronting negotiators for the two countries and the international community," wrote Committee chairman Sen. John Kerry in his transmittal letter.

See "Iran: Where We Are Today," A Report to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 4, 2009. http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2009_rpt/iran.html

Similarly, "We do not know whether Iran currently intends to develop nuclear weapons, although we assess Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons by continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so," according to another report (pdf) drafted for the U.S. Intelligence Community by the CIA's Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation, and Arms Control Center (WINPAC).
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/wmd-acq2008.pdf

See "Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2008," Unclassified Report to Congress, March 2009. http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/wmd-acq2008.pdf