Still No Surge; Still No Success
An important analysis of General Petraeus’ Surge in Iraq and whether it has had a positive effect in Iraq has been revised and updated. The analysis is authored by one who is in a position to know but who requests to remain anonymous; he can only be identified a “Herman Mindshaftgap, a senior analyst in a think-tank or government.” The article makes important reading for any who think the surge has been a success - and for those who suspect it may not have been.
The article can be summarized to make six important points, as follows:
* Compared to previous troop levels for analogous periods of time, the “Surge” brings no significant increase in deployments in Iraq.
* New tactics and deployments in Iraq do not improve the prospects for success over previous periods.
* Conditions in Iraq for civilians there have not improved, as measured by civilian casualties and oil and electricity production. In fact, for the period since July 2007 when the “Surge” actually took effect, civilian casualties have increased measurably, and oil and electricity production have decreased.
* The expansion of Iraqi security forces has not resulted in better protection for Iraqi civilians.
* While circumstances have apparently improved significantly in Anbar Province, they have deteriorated elsewhere.
* Those best able to measure the success of the surge, Iraqi civilians, assert in polls that conditions in Iraq are worse than before, that the US and allied forces are unwelcome and should leave the country, and by a margin of 57 percent it is OK to attack coalition forces.
The full text of the article is available at http://www.cdi.org/PDFs/The%20Urge%20To%20Surge.pdf
Winslow T. Wheeler
Straus Military Reform Project
Center for Defense Information
202 797-5271 in DC
301 840-8992 in MD