Nuclear deal: India racing to get IAEA, NSG stamp

N-deal: India racing to get IAEA, NSG stamp
13 Aug 2007, 0125 hrs IST,Rajeev Deshpande,TNN

NEW DELHI: While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh prepares to address Parliament on Monday on the 123 nuclear pact, the government's deal makers are working to a punishing schedule to ensure the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers' Group’s waiver to India is wrapped up in time for the accord to roll out within the Bush administration's lifespan.

The realisation in New Delhi that the deal, attacked by non-proliferationists in US and Opposition in India, stands its best chance till president George Bush is in office, has seen Indian negotiators focussing attention on IAEA as a safeguard agreement with the organisation is needed before the NSG exception.

It is only when the safeguard protocol for Indian civilian nuclear facilities is worked out that the NSG can consider a request for permitting its members to engage in nuclear commerce with India even though its strategic facilities will be outside any sort of international inspection. The safety protocol with the Vienna-based organisation is largely negotiated by the Department of Atomic Energy.

Even after finalisation of a safeguard protocol, sources said, navigating an India-specific exception through
the NSG was not going to be an easy prospect at all.

NSG procedures are complex and even though many members — like the Scandinavian nations — are no longer as inflexible as earlier on nuclear trade with India, no time frames could be visualised.

Though NSG rules have provisions for scheduling meetings outside its calendar, some members could need to go through their respective legislatures before signing an exception for India. This may take time and a clear-cut yes was needed from several members.

It was not easy to anticipate how long this would take, but it was evident that "a lot of hard work needs to be done", sources said.

In the NSG itself, India is keeping a close eye on China which, while maintaining that it did not oppose peaceful use of nuclear energy, also said that it did not favour a weakening of the non-proliferation regime.

The view in government is that if a sufficiently large consensus builds up in NSG, China would not want to be a lone holdout. The up-down vote in US Congress will follow only when business with NSG is over.

And while the government pursues its international agenda, it must also tackle domestic opposition, particularly from Left, that the deal will take India into the US orbit. Apart from defending itself from the charge that it has diluted India's strategic options, the allegation that New Delhi was becoming a camp follower of US would need to be countered, particularly as parties like SP link "pro-US" with being "anti-Muslim".

Sources do not deny that there is a certain convergence between India and US, even though differences remain on how certain issues need to be tackled. While India did not have troops in Afghanistan, the return of Taliban was hardly in New Delhi's interest. Neither was the prospect of Iran turning nuclear. "Should a Shia power get a bomb, other Sunni nations will also react. Can this be in India’s interest," sources pointed out.

As Indian strategic planners see it, the largest challenge in the next two decades is going to be the stupendous rise of China as a military and economic power. While India's ties with China has improved, there would clearly be elements of rivalry and competition in the relationship. In a unipolar world — Russia is now selling arms to China — India needed partners who shared the same objective.

While differences with US would remain, even on key issues from India's point of view — like Pakistan — government could not share Left's deep animosity with US or what is seen as its blinkered view on China. With regard to BJP, the argument being considered is that the 123 agreement is the logical conclusion of the 'Next Steps in Strategic Partnership' inked when the Vajpayee government was in office.
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